Today, the interviews for 11 candidates for the Fed chair position begin. How will Trump choose?

Written by: BUBBLE

At the beginning of September, the personnel and power landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve continued to evolve rapidly.

On September 3, it was reported that the White House has made it clear that it will finalize the next chairman of the Federal Reserve as soon as possible. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet has initiated the interview process with 11 candidates, which will start this Friday and continue for a week.

Meanwhile, there has been a growing number of personnel and power moves surrounding the "smooth transition." On one hand, Trump previously removed the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), raising concerns in the market about the independence of official data. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Board member Adrianna Kugler officially submitted her resignation in early August to make way for a new member.

The newly appointed Federal Reserve Board member, former Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Stephen Miran, nominated by Trump, attended the Senate Banking Committee hearing on September 4 local time. In her submitted written testimony, Miran emphasized "the independence of monetary policy," stating that she would focus on "maintaining independence" during the confirmation process, and there are expectations that her advancement will be very swift.

As more and more actions unfold, the market is shrouded in uncertainty about the future, and the question of who will become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve has become the focus of market attention.

Who are the 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair?

According to the Federal Reserve appointment rules, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve must be a current Board member. The current Chairman Powell's term as Chairman will end in May 2026, while the term as a Board member continues until January 2028. If he chooses to remain a Board member after stepping down, Trump's options for appointing a new Chairman in the future will be limited. Currently, the locked-in list of 11 core candidates includes elite leaders from various fields such as "Federal Reserve establishment + former officials + Wall Street practitioners."

Christopher Waller

Christopher Waller is the former research director of the St. Louis Fed, with a solid academic background and practical policy experience. Relevant individuals and prediction markets identify him as the hottest candidate, known for his "data-driven yet relatively flexible" style. Recently, he publicly supported a swift interest rate cut, leaning towards an earlier shift after inflationary pressures ease. His series of speeches on stablecoins are clear and coherent, advocating for innovation led by the private sector under a legislative and reserve regulatory framework.

At the same time, he is a director personally nominated by Trump during his first term. This current director, who is "familiar with the rules and a position dove," may be Trump's most trusted successor.

Michelle Bowman

Regulatory Vice Chair Michelle Bowman is seen as a representative of the "hawkish regulators." As one of the youngest members of the Federal Reserve Board, she is the strongest female hawkish representative.

In August of this year, she proposed that Federal Reserve employees should be allowed to hold a small amount of cryptocurrency assets to enhance their understanding of supervision, releasing a more "technically neutral" signal in terms of regulatory tone than ever before, while placing greater emphasis on the priority of price stability in monetary policy.

Philip Jefferson

Philip Jefferson, the current 63-year-old Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is also one of the top candidates. He has a strong academic and organizational background, is familiar with the day-to-day operations within the Federal Reserve, and is a representative of the "dovish" camp. He is relatively cautious in balancing employment and inflation and is viewed as one of the candidates to ensure continuity within the existing framework.

It is worth noting that if he is elected, he will be the first African American Chairman of the Federal Reserve in history.

Lorie Logan

Lorie Logan, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, previously had a long tenure at the New York Federal Reserve overseeing open market operations. His 23 years of experience at the New York Fed make him highly skilled in market "tactics and strategies" and crisis management, having effectively handled both the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic under his leadership. He is regarded as the central banker who "understands trading best."

Kevin Warsh

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh is a candidate who embodies both "crisis cycle experience" and "reform issues." His father-in-law is the heir to Estée Lauder, and he became the youngest governor in the history of the Federal Reserve at the age of 35. After leaving the Federal Reserve, he researched monetary policy reform at the Hoover Institution at Stanford.

Connections with Washington and Wall Street are also seen as a plus, which made him a popular candidate as early as the last round of elections in 2017.

James Bullard

James Bullard, the former president of the St. Louis Fed, is known for his ability to make early judgments on inflation turning points and has strong communication skills with both academia and the market. He began warning the market about the risks of inflation as early as 2021, but due to his independent personality and views, he has maintained a relatively "outlier" voting record on the FOMC for a long time.

Kevin Hassett

Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, has a deep connection with President Trump. Due to his position, he analyzes economic data for Trump almost every day and is even referred to by Trump as his 'economic professor.'

The policy ideas of both parties align, making them candidates with a very high "political trust level." Their weakness lies in the lack of experience working within the central bank.

Marc Sumerlin

Mark Summerlin previously came from the economic team of the George W. Bush administration, serving as the Deputy Director of the National Economic Council at that time. He proposed the most radical Federal Reserve reform plan, advocating for a "process redesign" of the FOMC at the communication and institutional levels, being a "reformist within the establishment."

Larry Lindsey

Larry Lindsey has bipartisan experience, having served as chief economic advisor to President George W. Bush and as a Federal Reserve governor during the Clinton administration. He is very skilled in policy coordination among the White House, central banks, and markets, and he accurately predicted the burst of the internet bubble. However, at the age of 70, he is being questioned by the market regarding his understanding of modern monetary policy tools and their "discontinuity."

David Zervos

David Zervos, the chief market strategist at Jefferies, belongs to the "market front-line faction" and is known for his straightforward style, sharp comments, and unique strategic perspective. He has a keen market sense, maintains close communication with the Federal Reserve, and worked at the New York Fed in the 1990s.

Rick Rieder

Rick Rieder, the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, is likely the candidate with the most extensive experience in managing large assets in practice. He manages over $4 trillion in assets at BlackRock, and the assets he manages have gone through multiple economic crisis cycles.

In recent months, the media's tone has clearly shifted towards "easing and a rise in risk appetite." If it transforms into a "maker," the "transferability of market experience - policy game" and the potential conflict of interest issues will be subjected to scrutiny, while the possible "conflict of interest" arising from the transition from managing funds to policy maker has also raised concerns in the market.

Three crypto-friendly candidates?

Among the most popular candidates, Christopher Waller also has the most systematic stance on the use cases of "crypto assets - stablecoins - payment innovation."

Waller's examination of crypto assets has been calm to the point of being harsh from the very beginning. He has compared most cryptocurrencies to "baseball cards"—lacking intrinsic value, with prices dependent on a fragile balance of emotions and confidence. Regarding this highly volatile speculative product, he insists that "the market should bear its own risks," and taxpayers should not foot the bill for investment failures.

On the topic of stablecoins, Waller has demonstrated a different perspective. As early as 2021, when stablecoins were still merely accessories to crypto assets, he recognized their potential. He has repeatedly emphasized that "stablecoins can improve payment efficiency, introduce international competition and speed," provided that Congress enhances legislation and establishes sufficient and transparent reserve and custody rules. Subsequently, in multiple speeches in 2024 and 2025, he urged Congress to legislate to prevent runs and disruptions in the payment system, allowing stablecoins to truly become a safe "synthetic dollar."

Waller has always maintained that innovation should be led by the private sector, with the government's role being to "build the highways"—infrastructure for clearing like FedNow serves as the lanes, while the forces driving the vehicles should be market competition. However, he also warned that if non-bank payment institutions and decentralized platforms lack regulation, they could accumulate leverage and create bubbles, ultimately threatening financial stability.

Rick Ried and David Zervos are different from Waller; in addition to theoretical and policy assistance, they have considerable interactions with the crypto industry. Rick Ried's involvement is more reflected in the management of funds and industry activities. As the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, he has not only participated in activities related to projects such as Circle and Bullish but has also engaged with and supported certain layouts around stablecoins and crypto credit through BlackRock's channels. Public documents indicate that he has also participated multiple times in public market or primary market events related to crypto trading platforms, stablecoin issuers, and crypto lending institutions.

David Zewos is someone who has actively participated in and supported multiple cryptocurrency-related projects. He has investment or support relationships with eToro (trading platform), Circle Internet Group (issuer of USDC), Bullish (cryptocurrency exchange supported by Peter Thiel, Alan Howard, and others), and Figure Technology Solutions (cryptocurrency mortgage platform). In addition, he supported MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchase plan early on, which effectively indirectly promoted the path to Bitcoin's corporate adoption.

Overall, Waller represents "institution-friendly" within the Federal Reserve system, while Zervos and Reed represent "capital-friendly" from Wall Street. If one of them takes over as chairman in the future, the Federal Reserve's policy direction may provide a clearer growth path for the compliant crypto market under the dual drive of "monetary easing + crypto institutionalization."

Summary

Looking at this candidate list that spans academia, politics, and business, it is evident that the choice of successor for the Federal Reserve Chairman is not just a matter of monetary policy rhythm, but is more directly related to the institutional direction of global financial markets and the cryptocurrency industry. For the market, the identities and paths of candidates from different backgrounds express different future market directions.

At the same time, observers also remind that Trump's frequent maneuvers in nominations and personnel arrangements have led to growing concerns in the market about the independence of the Federal Reserve. If the new chairman is seen as an excessive extension of "politicization", it may accelerate the release of easing and risk appetite in the short term, but it also increases the medium- to long-term volatility of dollar assets and institutional credibility.

For the crypto industry, regardless of who ultimately takes office, the real benefit does not lie in the "friendly label," but in whether the institutional path can be implemented. The key to determining whether the industry can benefit from policy dividends in the long term is how the boundaries of stablecoin legislation, bank integration, and decentralized payments are defined.

In other words, the arrival of the new chairman may just be the prologue; what the market needs to focus on is whether the system is truly moving towards compliance and transparency.