2100NEWS WEEKLY CRYPTO REPORT Aug-29

The NWST1100 index declined by 7.74% last week; Raydium (RAY), a large-cap non-Ethereum-based token, has made the most significant leap in rank within the NWSL100 crypto index on a biweekly basis.

*Below, we present a standardized weekly report and next week’s outlook, prepared based on the Theory Swingtum of intelligent finance. We gauge the crypto market’s breadth and direction by showing charts 2100NEWS Digital Assets Total Index (NWST1100), which measures 1100 (by market capitalization) significant crypto assets’ performance. The information-laden chart is complex to read initially, but it effectively displays essential price information, crucial decisive price levels, momentum, trading volumes, and crypto market breadth. Monitoring Market Sentiment and Breadth is necessary to detect early signs of trend reversals or continued strength.

Our detailed analysis of the NWST1100 chart and related market indicators reveals essential insights into the current market conditions:

The NWST1100 index declined by −7.74% last week, but this result looks more negative than the underlying structure suggests. The drop is measured from the peak of the FED-driven rally on Friday, August 22, which briefly lifted the market before fading. That surge, triggered by dovish Fed news, was quickly erased by early Monday as heavy selling pressure returned, but institutional investors soon stepped in, stabilizing the market. By the end of the weekend, the index had fully consolidated back to its Pivot P, where it has now been anchored for more than ten days. Through the rest of the week, the market did not display signs of a decisive downswing. Instead, it drifted modestly lower within a narrow range, closely orbiting the 10- and 25-day EMAs. Price action has remained centered within the middle of the Bollinger and Keltner channels, reinforcing that this phase is best described as consolidation around Pivot P, not a breakdown.

1. Market sentiment: The Price Oscillator (PPO) lines remained in positive territory, but the histogram has been moderately negative for nearly two weeks. Its amplitude — about one-third of the larger swings that typically drive sharp momentum reversals — reflects a gradual fading of positive momentum rather than aggressive downside acceleration. The RSI slipped to 45.8, slightly below neutral, indicating a softening of sentiment but not yet oversold conditions.
2. Attention has shifted to breadth indicators at the bottom of the NWST1100 chart. The Advance-Decline Volume Line (ADVL), adapted by 2100News for the crypto market as ADVPL, tracks the net money volume of advancing versus declining digital assets. It rose modestly last week, showing some inflow into advancing assets. The McClellan Summation Index, a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator that measures market breadth, continued to decline at a faster pace, signaling that underlying market breadth is weakening and losing momentum.

According to the chart on the right, all A50R indicators across all major segments (NWST1100, NWSET100, NWSL100, NWSCo100) have deteriorated; 34% of NWST1100 constituents are above their 50-day EMA. Large Caps (NWSL100) and Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100) are at ~30%, showing deeper pullbacks precisely because they had led the prior upswing. In contrast, the broader speculative segments, such as NWSS300, which had lagged earlier, are now falling at a slower rate. This confirms that the pullback is selective and quality-driven, with leadership sectors correcting more sharply while laggards appear less pressured on a relative basis.

*This breadth indicator is essential in measuring the internal strength or weakness of the underlying index. Looking at the chart on the right side, we can see the A50R lines for four different categories of digital assets:

1. The top box shows the A50R lines for 100 Large-cap members of NWSL100.
2. The middle box displays the A50R lines for 1100 members of NWST1100, which is the Total Index measuring the performance of significant crypto assets based on market capitalization.
3. The third box shows the A50R lines for 100 Ethereum Tokens members of NWSET100.
4. The bottom box represents the A50R lines for 100 Coins members of NWSCo100.

📉 Summary

The crypto market’s recent weakness should be interpreted less as the start of a new downswing and more as a selective pullback within an ongoing consolidation. Price has since gravitated back to Pivot P, holding within the center of the Bollinger and Keltner channels. Momentum is fading, with the PPO histogram moderately negative and RSI at 45.8, but neither indicator points to capitulation. The cryptocurrency market is anchored in consolidation, where leading sectors are digesting gains and broader participation remains hesitant.

Outlook for the Week Ahead

This report aims to provide probable insights into the cryptocurrency market’s near-term outlook. While complete predictability remains challenging, market waves exhibit some degree of predictability, with discernible patterns in market behavior. By examining momentum indicators, several signals emerge that offer insights into the potential direction of the market in the short term.

1. The market is nearing a critical inflection point as the 10-day EMA converges with the 25-day EMA. A decisive crossover would typically mark a “dead cross” and could accelerate downside momentum. Yet, historical patterns show that a second attempt to break support often fails, making the continuation of consolidation the more probable outcome. This setup is reminiscent of mid-June, when the same averages converged, but instead of a downswing, a test of support produced an immediate reversal.
2. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stood at 46 last week, a soft reading but not oversold, indicating ongoing digestion rather than a breakdown. This is not a breakdown signal, but rather a phase of technical digestion anchored along the lower halves of the Bollinger and Keltner bands.
3. The PPO histogram, which measures the rate of change (i.e., the first derivative) of PPO lines, may turn positive late in the week; it has stayed moderately negative for almost two weeks; statistically, such phases persist, but the probability of a turn toward the zero line later this week is rising. Meanwhile, PPO lines are trending toward the zero axis, a decision zone that often determines whether a correction deepens or exhausts.
4. The Breadth indicators at the bottom of the first chart (NWST1100) also point to a potential downward phase. Participation may weaken, but the deterioration appears to be decelerating. If this continues, breadth will likely confirm that selling pressure is active, guiding the market into a controlled test of lower support levels rather than a broad-based advance.

📌 Target and Scenario Considerations:

Most likely scenario: The NWST1100 may drift lower within the range channel defined by the Bollinger Bands, Keltner envelope, and Support S1, with a test of the lower Bollinger boundary (~7,800) and potentially probing 7,750, where deep buying is expected to emerge. Should this test occur before Friday, a relief rally from the lower boundary is likely — but such a rebound will remain confined within the range and should not be interpreted as the start of a new trend leg.📍 Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 7,750 (near lower Bollinger boundary)
• Resistance: 8,250 (Pivot P)

Investors and traders often rely on historical performance data to make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency holdings. After analyzing the data in the table, it is evident that the crypto market experienced negative performance; the overall index declined by 7.74% over the last week. The accompanying chart highlights the performance of key cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ether, alongside the 2100NEWS Indices, which track Ethereum-based tokens (NWSET100), large caps (NWSL100), and coins (NWSCo100). Among these, Ether stood out, significantly outperforming other segments with an 18.76% gain over the past thirty days.

While the broader market has dropped, different segments and individual cryptocurrencies exhibit different performance dynamics.

Performance Trends by Market Segment:

✔ NWSET100 (Ethereum-based tokens)****, NWS30, and NWSL100 (Large Caps) led the market with substantial gains**,**

✔ **NWSCo100 (Coins)**improved, showing notable strength.

✔ Ether was weakening.

✔ NWSBE and Bitcoin lagged.

Investors and traders might use this information to adjust their portfolios, possibly shifting focus toward assets with stronger relative momentum while being cautious about those in the Weakening quadrant.

*RRG® charts show the relative strength and momentum of groups of digital assets. Those with strong relative strength and momentum appear in the green Leading quadrant. As relative momentum fades, they typically move into the yellow Weakening quadrant. If relative strength then fades, they move into the red Lagging quadrant. Finally, when momentum picks up again, they shift into the blue Improving quadrant.

Crypto (Digital Assets) compared with global equity

This report offers a comprehensive analysis comparing the performance of digital assets, as represented by the NWST1100 index, to shares on global capital markets, as measured by the Dow Jones Global W1Dow index. We draw insights into historical achievements and potential future trends by examining their performances over various time frames.

Let’s break down the key observations and implications:

• Historical Performance Comparison:
  • 46 Months Ago: Digital assets vastly outperformed global equities in global capital markets, reaching a record high in the comparative quotient between the NWST1100 and W1Dow index.
  • From twelve months ago to the Present, digital assets have outperformed equities by 48.6%.
• Mean Reversion Opportunity:
  • The average quotient price, represented by a blue dashed curve, has been 10.82 over the past 143 working days, while the current spot price is 11.23. This is higher than the long-term mean of 8.59, which has increased since October.
  • The mean reversion theory suggests that asset prices tend to revert to their historical average returns over time. The current average quotient price above the long-run mean could imply that digital assets are currently highly valued compared to historical trends.
• Returns Comparison (12-month Accumulation Method) & Strategic Investment Timing:
  • The chart also presents the returns achieved by the simplified index-based accumulation approach—buying one index point per day over 12 months—to simulate a mechanical exposure build-up. While this method is not equivalent to classical dollar-cost averaging (which involves investing a fixed amount of capital daily), it offers a consistent benchmark to compare historical costs and returns. The NWST1100 Crypto Index has risen by 69.16% over the past twelve months. With daily index investments, an investor’s stock price would have resulted in a gain of 18.7% on the current index price, despite unprofitable purchases due to high entry prices during a prolonged market uptrend when prices remained above the 143-day moving average for an extended period.
  • The DJW, representing global capital market shares, grew by 14.95% over the past twelve months. However, a daily purchase strategy would have resulted in a 10.4% gain.
• Conclusion:

The recent rally highlights the importance of tracking market swings. Historically, the best opportunities have emerged when sentiment was weakest and prices were below the 143-day EMA. Conversely, when the market rallies strongly and extends far above the 143-day EMA, as it is now, it is often prudent to start building cash reserves to take advantage of future pullbacks.

*The box in the middle of the chart shows the original NWST1100 price; at the bottom is W1Dow

Indices Revision 8-29-2025

Based on the latest biweekly revision, BFUSD improved its ranking and was added to the NWSL100 index. On the other hand, Fartcoin was removed from the NWSL100 index. Meanwhile, several adjustments were made to the mid-cap indices (NWSM200), where new projects were introduced and weaker ones were removed, reflecting the ongoing dynamism of that segment. Several new mid-cap assets, including Cored DAO, BIO Protocol, API3, and others, have been added to the NWSM200 index. Each index’s presentation provides more details about the additions and deletions across the broader family of 2100NEWS indices.

Winning member

Congratulations to Raydium (RAY) on achieving a significant milestone: being recognized as the winning member of the NWSL100 crypto index, marking a crucial leap in rank within the index.

*We elect the member of the NWSL100 crypto index with the most significant jump in our ranking. We will examine how the market rates the project’s progress in case of price changes. It seems important to us whether the project is out of the ordinary tide of crypto project prices. Peer comparison should be efficient and effective, considering an investor’s point of view

Raydium (RAY) **

RAY, a large-cap non-Ethereum-based token, is ranked 68th in the 2100NEWS ranking. It is an Index member: NWST1100, NWSL100, NWSTo100, NWSOT50

2100NEWS DA Orderbook Quality Evaluation Grade: Poor, 16.5 (Average for Large-caps: 17.4)

Over the past week, the average market capitalization was $942.6 million, and the average daily trading volume was $127.4 million.

Raydium is an automated market maker (AMM) platform built on Solana, where users can swap, trade, and provide liquidity to earn a yield on digital assets. However, unlike other AMM platforms, Raydium’s AMM provides on-chain liquidity to Serum’s central limit order book, meaning that Raydium’s users and liquidity pools have access to the order flow and liquidity of the entire Serum ecosystem and vice versa.