Vitalik Buterin warns of quantum computer risks to cryptocurrency

Co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, believes there is a 20% chance that quantum computers will cause a breakdown of current cryptographic systems before 2030.

This statement raises many concerns about blockchain security, questioning whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency systems are ready to deal with this threat.

Vitalik Buterin's Predictions on Quantum Computers

According to Buterin, it is highly likely that by 2040, quantum computers will truly pose a significant threat to current cryptography. He made this prediction after commenting on studies and forecasts on the Metaculus platform – which aggregates predictions from experts. The median prediction of this platform also marks 2040 as the time when cryptography could be broken down.

However, the figure of 20% before 2030 is particularly notable due to the level of potential risk.

Concerns about quantum threats are not new. Since 1994, mathematician Peter Shor has shown that large-scale quantum computers could break digital signatures – the foundation protecting financial systems. After nearly 30 years, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other blockchains still rely on these very methods.

Why is it essential to upgrade the system?

Experts argue that the challenge lies not only in the fact that hackers can read old data but also in the soundness ( of the system.

Cryptographer Ian Miers emphasized that blockchain needs to ensure reliability even when facing superior computational power. He believes that cryptographic proof tools like STARKs or zero-knowledge methods will become increasingly popular, while competing with post-quantum solutions that are being developed.

Some projects have taken the lead, such as Quranium, which has redesigned the security system from scratch instead of relying on old mechanisms. Quranium employs two new signature methods – SLHDSA and SPHINCS – which have been approved by NIST, demonstrating a trend towards future-oriented security.

Buterin's warning suggests that many other blockchains need to take action soon if they want to maintain safety in the coming decade.

Bitcoin at the risk of quantum

The debate strongly focused on Bitcoin – the largest cryptocurrency, which is based on traditional digital signatures that could be broken by quantum computers. If this technology progresses faster than expected, the Bitcoin system could face serious risks without improvements.

While Bitcoin is seen as the symbol of decentralization, Ethereum stands out for its programmability, new blockchains may compete thanks to their resistance to quantum computers. This shows that design security can become a key competitive advantage in the new blockchain era.

Currently, there are no quantum computers powerful enough to break encryption. However, Buterin's prediction has highlighted the urgency of preparing from now. If there is a 20% chance that current encryption will collapse before 2030, then upgrading the system right now may be the only way to mitigate future risks.

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