XRP Can Still Break Through in Q4 Despite Short-Term Downtrend

XRP closed the daily candlestick below the psychological level of 3 dollars on Tuesday, extending the two-week correction. Although the short term trend looks negative, the long term outlook remains optimistic, thanks to a recurring market fractal pattern. Market Fractal Concept Market fractals refer to repeating price structures that can be observed across different time frames, where similar setups often yield similar results. On the daily candlestick chart of XRP, the current structure reflects a pattern that was recorded earlier this year. In January 2025, the price of XRP rose to $3.40 before stabilizing down to $1.60 in April.

This local bottom appeared after the price touched the liquidity in both the daily and weekly fair value range (FVG). Imbalances on higher timeframes are often weighted more heavily, as they highlight areas where buying orders and liquidity from large traders are concentrated. Current Situation and Future Predictions In July, XRP made a strong recovery, establishing a new local high at $3.66. Currently, the chart is outlining a similar setup, with a new clear FVG located between $2.32 and $2.66. If this imbalance is filled, the probability of a new expansion phase will increase, paving the way for a potential breakout. Based on the declining profit rate, XRP could record an increase of 60% to 85% in Q4, with the potential to rise up to 4.35 dollars. The crucial turning point is at the level of 3.85 dollars; surpassing this level, XRP will enter the price discovery phase. Combined with favorable macroeconomic factors, such as the possibility of interest rate cuts by the U.S., XRP may maintain momentum beyond initial targets, extending the bullish trend in the coming weeks. Although short-term volatility is still likely to occur, the overall structure indicates a continued price increase in Q4. XRP Whale Flow: Signs of Exhaustion Recent on-chain data shows that large XRP holders, also known as "whale addresses," are reducing their positions; however, selling pressure is approaching exhaustion. A similar wave of sell-off was recorded in Q2, coinciding with a broader correction of XRP. Currently, the 90-day moving average of whale net flows shows a peak in distribution, which could turn positive as prices trend downward.

History has shown that whale activity plays an important role in shaping the direction of the market. In the second half of 2024, significant accumulation took place in the range of $2.00 to $2.50, where whales built large positions ahead of the XRP price surge. A similar setup may be occurring, with accumulation areas likely to reappear around the $2.65–$2.33 level.