Minsheng Macro: It is expected that the hard data in the US will fall in the second half of the year, and "stagnation" will become the trigger for a market turning point by The Federal Reserve (FED).

Jin10 data, June 19th: According to the macro research report from Minsheng, the Federal Reserve (FED) maintained its usual "inaction" statement at the June meeting without surprises, and it seems to want to extend the period of "inaction" even longer (more people support not lowering interest rates within the year). In light of consecutive supply shocks, the FED needs more time to assess inflation risks, and considering the current uncertainties in trade, fiscal, and other policies, "waiting" remains the best choice that the FED has no alternative but to make. So, how much longer will the FED wait? We believe that the biggest highlight of the U.S. economy in the second half of the year is that the "hard" data needs to "catch up" with the "fall", and within the next quarter, the risk of "stagnation" will once again become dominant, which will be an important trigger for the market turning point in the September monetary policy meeting.