The risk of recession in America has significantly decreased – Is it time to take profit on crypto?

The value of cryptocurrencies is drawing attention, in the context of new data showing the probability of economic recession in the United States has significantly fallen to 28%, compared to the 70% predicted last month.

This sudden change reflects a series of positive signals from the economy and is sparking numerous discussions about its potential impact on the global financial market.

Although confidence is recovering in traditional sectors, there are still many questions about how the cryptocurrency market will react in this new volatile economic environment. Investors are currently maintaining a cautious attitude, closely monitoring developments and carefully weighing safety against risk.

The risk of recession falls sharply – A boost of confidence for the US economy

Recent economic data shows that the risk of recession in the United States has fallen sharply – from a forecasted level of 70% to just 28% – in less than a month. This sudden drop, according to assessments from the prediction market Kalshi and reported by independent journalist Walter Bloomberg, is being viewed as one of the most positive improvements in recent memory regarding the outlook for the U.S. economy.

! Source: XBhe quantitative data, a series of actual developments also contribute to optimistic sentiment. The most notable is the turning point in US-China trade relations. In the last month, the world's two largest economies reached an agreement to reduce tariffs: the United States lowered tariffs on imports of goods from China from 145 percent to 30 percent, while China reduced retaliatory tariffs from 125 percent to 10 percent. These adjustments are considered an important push to help ease trade tensions that have put pressure on the market and business sentiment during the past time.

The labor market also recorded a positive signal. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 37,000 jobs in May. Although it is not an outstanding number, it still reflects a stable growth – especially when placed in the context of shifting monetary policy.

Notably, the interest rate cut policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) – implemented at the end of 2024 – seems to have started to take effect, helping stabilize borrowing costs and creating room for businesses to access capital more easily.

Combining these factors, analysts are increasingly confident in the "soft landing" scenario for the U.S. economy – a perspective in which inflation is controlled without sacrificing a deep recession.

Opportunities for a "soft landing"

Schroders US – one of the reputable global financial organizations – recently adjusted its economic outlook for the US in a more positive direction, based on important changes in the macroeconomic indicators.

In an update posted on June 4 on social media X, Schroders raised the probability of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy from 35% in April to 65% in May. This is a significant change, reflecting a marked improvement in market confidence.

! Source: XThe concept of "soft landing" refers to a scenario in which the Fed succeeds in curbing inflation without causing the economy to fall into recession – a difficult goal but expected to be achieved thanks to sound monetary policy.

According to Schroders, this adjustment is not a subjective guess, but based on positive real data: improvements in international trade, declining inflationary pressures, and a continuing expansion of the labor market, albeit at a moderate pace. These are key factors that significantly reduce the risk of a downturn in the short term.

Not only do these trends affect growth prospects, but they are also reshaping global investment strategies. In the context of cooling recession risks, many investors are turning to fixed-income assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds – which are seen as a safe haven during uncertain times. This contributes to stabilizing the financial markets while facilitating better planning and development for businesses.

However, Schroders also notes that not all risks have been eliminated. Some analysts still believe that global uncertainties – from geopolitics to supply chain volatility – continue to pose a potential threat, and investors should maintain a cautious stance.

In a still gray economic picture, the perspective from Schroders indicates that optimism is returning – but conditionally, requiring close observation and flexible responses from both policymakers and investors.

Cryptocurrency: Will it continue to rise or lose momentum?

The cryptocurrency market – known for its high volatility – is entering a challenging phase as macroeconomic indicators are changing rapidly, especially with the risk of recession in the United States becoming increasingly evident.

In May 2025, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of 111,000 USD, marking one of the strongest rallies in the history of this digital asset. This increase was partly driven by a more positive stance from the Trump administration, with friendlier commitments to the blockchain industry and cryptocurrency mining.

However, as the risk of recession in the US decreases significantly, some market observers believe that the growth momentum of cryptocurrencies may no longer be sustained as before. Julius de Kempenaer from RRG Research notes that Bitcoin often moves in correlation with the stock market and tends to become more attractive during times of economic instability, when investors seek alternative risk solutions.

Currently, as the investment environment gradually stabilizes and safe assets like U.S. Treasury bonds return to the spotlight, capital flows may shift away from risky assets like cryptocurrencies. This poses a challenge to the growth rate and the level of widespread acceptance of the crypto market in the short term.

However, the outlook is not entirely bleak. Some optimistic analysts still believe that geopolitical tensions – particularly the trade pressures related to China – along with internal political factors in the U.S. could continue to support a positive sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. In this context, proponents of digital assets argue that Bitcoin and alternative coins still have a certain place as a strategic investment channel.

The market is currently in a clear state of tug-of-war: on one side is caution in the face of new macroeconomic developments, while on the other side is the expectation of continued support from political factors and the demand for non-traditional assets. The balance between these two extremes will shape the next trend of the cryptocurrency market in the second half of 2025.

Justin