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In recent years, the <a href="/ja/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">cryptocurrency market</a> has experienced drastic fluctuations. From the historic bull market of 2021 to the 'crypto winter' of 2022, and then to 2025 [Bitcoin price](/price/bitcoin-btc) Breaking through the $100,000 mark for the first time, <a href="/ja/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> is still hovering around $85,000, while <a href="/ja/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> has led the altcoins to collapse completely. Investors can't help but ask: Will the cryptocurrency market truly recover? This article will analyze the possibility and potential paths of the cryptocurrency market recovery from the dimensions of macroeconomics and market sentiment.

## Macroeconomics: Federal Reserve policy and safe-haven demand are key variables

Global central bank monetary policy remains a core factor affecting the prices of crypto assets. In September 2024, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, fueling market expectations for a 'rate-cut cycle' and driving a rebound in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin from their lows. Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and USD liquidity—when the US dollar weakens, the safe-haven properties of crypto assets as 'digital gold' may be reactivated.

In addition, the entry of traditional financial institutions injects new momentum into the market. Since the official launch of BTC ETF in January 2024, a total of $35.6 billion has flowed into major ETFs. If favorable macroeconomic policies appear in the future, it may attract traditional funds of hundreds of billions of dollars into the <a href="/ja/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a>, becoming a 'catalyst' for market recovery.

## Market sentiment: On-chain data and cyclical patterns reveal turning points

From a historical cycle perspective, the cryptocurrency market exhibits a 'four-year bull and bear cycle' feature, highly correlated with the <a href="/ja/explore/bitcoin-halving-countdown" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin halving</a> event. The last <a href="/ja/explore/bitcoin-halving-countdown" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">BTC halving</a> occurred in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC; the next BTC halving is expected to take place in April 2028. After the past four halvings, Bitcoin has hit a historical high within 12-18 months. If the cycle continues, 2028 may usher in a new round of market trends.

At the same time, on-chain data also releases positive signals:

- Long-term holders (LTH) with a share of over 75%: indicating increased confidence in the future market by 'diamond hands' investors;
- Exchange BTC reserves hit a five-year low: reduced selling pressure, liquidity tightening could push up prices;
- Whale address activity is increasing: large funds may be bottoming out.

## Risks and Challenges: Three Unignorable Hidden Worries

Despite the initial signs of recovery, the market still faces multiple risks:

1. Global economic recession: if the Federal Reserve restarts aggressive rate hikes to curb inflation, risk assets may be sold off;
2. Regulatory black swan event: Crackdown on privacy coins and DeFi protocols may trigger panic;
3. Technical vulnerabilities and security crises: Cross-chain bridges and exchange hacks occur frequently, threatening the security of user assets.

## Future Outlook

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is expected to enter a "structural recovery" phase in 2023-2024, but the performance of different tracks will significantly differentiate:

- Bitcoin and Ethereum: BTC, as a market barometer, may benefit from the possibility of ETF fund inflows breaking through first;
- Layer2 and infrastructure projects: addressing scalability pain points, valuation logic approaching traditional technology stocks;
- Meme coin and low market value tokens: high volatility persists, with speculative nature outweighing practical value.

For investors, paying attention to the Federal Reserve's policy trends, the pace of mainstream institutional entry, and the implementation of regulatory frameworks may become the key to grasping the next round of market trends.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author: **Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. Investment involves risks and users need to make careful decisions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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Will the Crypto Market Recover? In-Depth Outlook for 2025