Introduction: When Does a Crypto Bull Market Typically End?

A crypto bull market refers to a phase where asset prices rise rapidly and investor sentiment soars. However, no bull run lasts forever. Historical patterns show that bull markets often reach a turning point after specific signals emerge, eventually giving way to corrections or even bear markets.

This article examines the typical signs of a bull market ending by analyzing past market cycles, weakening technical and on-chain signals, expert opinions, and macroeconomic factors that may dampen momentum. The key takeaway: these warning signs often appear early and serve as crucial references for identifying top risks.

Why Do We Need Bull Market Top Indicators?

While timing your entry in a bull market is important, the real key to profitability lies in exiting safely near the top. Many investors join a bull run successfully but miss out on optimal profit-taking due to greed or the inability to recognize market tops.

To help investors improve their judgment, a community analyst @_43A6 on X (formerly Twitter) compiled a list of historically proven top signals, later refined and summarized by @DtDt666. Eventually, the Coinglass team visualized and integrated these into the “Bull Market Top Signal Checklist,” which features 30 indicators designed to help investors determine whether the market is overheating and whether it’s time to lock in profits or adopt a more conservative strategy.

Overview of 25 Indicators Across 7 Categories

This section is based on Coinglass’s list of 30 bull market top signals and incorporates data from platforms like Looknode and CoinAnk. The indicators are organized into 7 major categories, with 25 commonly used top indicators highlighted and explained one by one. Note: It is not recommended to rely on a single indicator for decision-making. Indicators should be evaluated together to gain a more comprehensive understanding of whether the market has entered a potential top phase.

Detailed introductions and analyses of the indicators are as follows:

1. Price and Valuation Indicators

These indicators evaluate whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued by examining historical price trends, long-term averages, and market value models. They are used to determine whether the bull market has reached an overvaluation stage.

Purpose: To identify price bubbles and set entry/exit timing.

Common indicator:

1) AHR999 Bitcoin Accumulation Index (Bitcoin Ahr999 Index)

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/bull-market-peak-signals

The AHR999 Index measures the ratio between BTC’s current price, its 200-day DCA (dollar-cost averaging) cost, and a modeled price estimate. It was originally proposed by Weibo user ahr999, combining DCA strategy with market timing to help investors make informed decisions. The indicator reflects short-term DCA returns and price deviation.

AHR999 Index Ranges:

• 4: Strongly advised to reduce positions
• 1.2: Caution zone, not ideal for trading
• 0.45–1.2: Suitable for DCA
• < 0.45: Good for bottom-fishing

Analysis:
A reading of ≥4 suggests a bull market top. The current value is 0.78, indicating that this cycle is suitable for DCA.

2) AHR999x Top Escape Indicator (Bitcoin AHR999x Top Escape Indicator)

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/bull-market-peak-signals

The AHR999x Index is an evolved version of the AHR999 Index. It still evaluates BTC’s current price against historical prices or model-based estimated prices to assess the value-for-money of buying at the current level.

AHR999x Index Ranges:

• Above 8: Historically considered a bottom zone
• Between 0–0.45: Historically considered a top zone

Analysis:
A reading of ≤0.45 signals a bull market top. The current value is 3.87. While it hasn’t triggered a top signal, it sits in a moderately high-neutral zone, suggesting the market is not overheated and does not signal a top yet.

3) Puell Multiple

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/bull-market-peak-signals

David Puell originally created this indicator. The value represents the multiple of miners’ current income relative to their average income over the past year—hence the name “Puell Multiple.”

The calculation is: the USD value of daily Bitcoin mining output divided by the 365-day average.

This metric mainly reflects miner revenue. Since miners typically sell part of their BTC to cover operational costs, it helps assess their profitability and potential market sell pressure.

• In the (8, +∞) range: Indicates a bottom zone
• In the (0, 0.45) range: Indicates a top zone

Analysis:
Bull market top zone is ≥2.2. The current value is 1.31, indicating miners are in a healthy earning phase, with no systemic sell pressure triggered.

4) Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/bull-market-peak-signals

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is a long-term valuation tool that uses a logarithmic growth curve to predict Bitcoin’s potential price trends. Its key features include:

• The rainbow-colored bands overlayed on the logarithmic growth curve, with different colors reflecting market sentiment and potential buying/selling opportunities.
• The price typically fluctuates within these rainbow bands along the logarithmic growth channel.

How to use this tool:

• When the price reaches warmer-colored areas, it indicates the market may be overheated, presenting a good profit-taking opportunity.
• When the price drops to cooler-colored areas, market sentiment is low, usually a good time to accumulate Bitcoin.

This chart is updated every 24 hours to reflect the latest daily closing price.

Analysis:
The bull market top zone is ≥5. The current value is 2, indicating that the valuation is still healthy or slightly cool, suggesting the market is not overheated.

5) Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/bull-market-peak-signals

The MVRV-Z Score is a relative indicator that measures the difference between Bitcoin’s “circulating market cap” and “realized market cap,” then standardizes it using the circulating market cap. Its formula is:

MVRV-Z Score = (Circulating Market Cap - Realized Market Cap) / Standard Deviation (Circulating Market Cap)

The “realized market cap” is based on the value of Bitcoin’s on-chain transactions, calculated by summing the “last moved value” of all Bitcoins on the chain. Therefore, when this indicator is too high, it suggests that Bitcoin’s market cap is overvalued relative to its actual value, which can be unfavorable for Bitcoin’s price. Conversely, when it is low, it suggests undervaluation.

Based on historical data, when this indicator reaches historical highs, the probability of Bitcoin’s price experiencing a downtrend increases, signaling a potential risk of chasing high prices.

Analysis:
The bull market top zone is ≥5. The current value is 1.76, indicating that the market is still in a profit zone but not overheated, remaining in a healthy range, and therefore has not triggered a top signal.

6) Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO)

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/bull-market-peak-signals

The Bitcoin Macro Oscillator (BMO) includes the following key points:

1.Main Function: Integrates four key market indicators to analyze Bitcoin market dynamics.
2.Four Core Indicators:

• MVRV Ratio: Assesses whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.
• VWAP Ratio: Calculates the average price based on trading volume.
• CVDD Ratio: Tracks transaction value and considers coin age.
• Sharpe Ratio: Evaluates risk-adjusted returns.

3.Practical Value:

• Can identify market tops and bottoms.
• High levels may indicate market topping.
• Low levels may indicate buying opportunities.
  Analysis:

Analysis:
The bull market top zone is ≥1.4. The current value is 0.51, indicating a healthy, undervalued state, with no signs of a bubble.

7) Bitcoin MVRV Ratio

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/bull-market-peak-signals

MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio highlights include:

1.Main Function: MVRV is an indicator used to assess whether the Bitcoin market is overvalued or undervalued.
2.Calculation Method: MVRV = Market Value (MV) / Realized Value (RV).
3.Key Judgment Standards:

• MVRV > 1: Most holders are in profit, indicating the market may be overheated (signals a market top).
• MVRV < 1: Most holders are in loss, indicating the market may be undervalued (signals a market bottom).

4.Practical Value:

• Consider buying when MVRV is close to or below 1.
• Consider selling when MVRV exceeds 3.

Note: It is recommended to use this indicator in conjunction with others, not solely rely on MVRV for decision-making.

Analysis:
The bull market top zone is ≥3. The current value is 1.95, which is in a normal slightly overheated zone, not yet triggering a top signal. It’s suitable for monitoring, and if the index rises above 2.5-3.0, early consideration of gradual reduction or more conservative strategies may be necessary.

8) Bitcoin Mayer Multiple

Source: https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/bull-market-peak-signals

The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is primarily used to assess the relative valuation level of the Bitcoin market. It operates as follows:

• Calculation Method: Current Bitcoin price / 200-day moving average price of Bitcoin.
• Provides market condition assessments:
• 1: Indicates potential overbought conditions.
• <1: Indicates potential oversold conditions.
• Close to 1: Indicates a balanced market.

Importantly, when the index exceeds 2.4, it typically signals market overheating, while values below 0.8 may indicate a buying opportunity.

Analysis:
The bull market top zone is ≥2.2. The current value is 0.96, which is in the normal or undervalued range, not triggering a bull market top signal.

9) Terminal Price Prediction (Bitcoin Terminal Price)

Source: https://coinank.com/indexdata/btcPricePrediction

This is a long-term price cap predicted by an on-chain model created by Checkmate. The terminal price assumes that all Bitcoin has been mined and that the historical value of all on-chain activities is standardized. It provides a “price cap that could be reached if the current cycle enters an extreme FOMO state,” based on the value and time of on-chain transactions (Coin Days Destroyed), and is used to estimate Bitcoin’s ultimate valuation model.

Market condition judgment:

• If the BTC price is within 10% of the terminal price: Entering the bubble zone, it is recommended to take profits or partially exit main positions.
• If the BTC price crosses the terminal price: The market may be overheating, and the market is in a high-risk phase. Other indicators need to be monitored.
• If the BTC price is below the terminal price: The market is not overheated, and holding can be considered.

Analysis:
The Coinglass bull market top zone reference value is 187,702, indicating that the current price has not yet reached this zone. However, based on CoinAnk’s chart, in past bull markets (2013, 2017, 2021), BTC prices came close to or touched the terminal price line before entering the top zone. This usually occurred later than the Top Cap or Delta Top, marking the price limit in the final euphoric phase.

2. Technical Analysis and Cycle Prediction

Through historical moving averages, moving average crossovers, multiplier models, and other technical patterns and cyclical laws, potential bull market tops are forecasted.

Purpose: To predict turning points from charts and timing rhythms.

Common indicators:

10) Pi Cycle Top Indicator

The Pi Cycle Indicator boasts high historical accuracy and can predict market peaks with precision within 3 days. It primarily uses two moving averages to assess:

• 111-day moving average (short-term)
• 2x of the 350-day moving average (long-term)

Key judgment:

• When the short-term line (111DMA) crosses above the long-term line (350DMA x 2), it usually indicates that the market has reached a peak.
• The “Pi” in the indicator’s name comes from the ratio 350/111 ≈ 3.153, which is very close to the value of π (3.142).

Analysis:
The bull market escape zone is ≥152,817, while the current value is 83,852. The Pi Cycle Indicator has not yet entered the escape zone, and Bitcoin has not yet reached an overheated peak. It is currently in a technical mid-term range. Based on historical accuracy, it is recommended to continue monitoring the crossover between the 111DMA and 350DMA×2. If the price approaches $150,000 or higher, increased caution is advised.

11) 2-Year MA Multiplier

Source: https://coinank.com/zh-tw/indexdata/year2MA

The main points of the 2-Year MA Multiplier indicator are:

• This is a long-term investment tool used to determine Bitcoin’s buy and sell timing.
• It uses two key lines:
• The 2-year moving average (green line, equivalent to the 730-day moving average)
• 5 times the 2-year moving average (red line)

Buy and sell signals:

• Buy signal: When the price falls below the 2-year moving average (green line)
• Sell signal: When the price exceeds 5 times the 2-year moving average (red line)

Principle: This indicator effectively captures extreme market sentiments. When investors are overly excited, prices rise excessively, and when overly pessimistic, prices fall too much. By identifying these extreme periods, long-term investors can find better buy and sell opportunities.

Analysis:
The bull market escape zone is ≥282,335, while the current value is 83,852. The 2-Year MA Multiplier currently does not show any escape risk signals. Bitcoin’s price remains significantly below the red line, suggesting that there is still room for price growth and maintaining value for long-term holders. It is important to continuously monitor when the price approaches $280,000 or higher to assess potential risk zones.

12) RSI - 22 Day

Source: TradingView, BTCUSD RSI set to 22 days

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator proposed by technical analyst J. Welles Wilder in 1978, used to measure the strength of an asset’s recent price fluctuations. The RSI is typically calculated based on 14 trading days of data; however, in practice, traders adjust the parameters according to their specific trading strategies and market conditions.

RSI-22Day refers to the RSI indicator calculated over a 22-day period (you can set the number of days to 22 yourself). It is smoother than the standard 14-day period and is more suitable for medium- to long-term trend analysis.

Reference range:

• RSI > 70: Market is overheated, possibly overbought, entering caution.
• RSI < 30: Market is oversold, possibly undervalued, potential buying point.

Analysis:
The bull market escape zone is ≥ 80, with the current value at 45.29, indicating that the market has not yet entered the high-risk zone. It is neutral to slightly cold, meaning the short-term rally has not expanded excessively, so it does not trigger an escape signal.

13) Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average

Definition of the 4-Year Moving Average: It calculates the average daily closing price of Bitcoin over the past 4 years (approximately 1460 days) and is used to analyze long-term trends.

Why is it important:

• It corresponds to Bitcoin’s halving cycle every 4 years and has long-term cycle analysis value.
• It is often used as a strong support and resistance line to help determine market reversal points.

How to use:

• Buying opportunity: When the price drops near the 4-year moving average and receives support, especially near the end of a bear market.
• Selling opportunity: When the price is significantly higher than the 4-year moving average and starts to decline, it may be an opportunity to exit the market.

Example validation:
During the 2020-2021 bull market, the price was significantly higher than the moving average, indicating overbuying; during the 2018-2019 bear market, the price dropped near the moving average and rebounded, confirming the reliability of this indicator.

Analysis:
The bull market escape index is ≥ 3.5, with the current value at 1.85. At this stage, Bitcoin is still above the long-term average but has not yet entered an extreme overvaluation or bubble zone, remaining in a healthy bull market phase.

14) CBBI Index (Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index)

The CBBI Index (full name Colin Talks Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index) is an indicator used to assess the phase of the Bitcoin market cycle. It is a comprehensive market cycle analysis tool combining multiple on-chain and technical indicators, using a “Confidence Score” (0–100) to determine whether Bitcoin is approaching the top of a bull market or the bottom of a bear market.

Reference Range:

• 80–90 points: The market may be approaching the top of the bull market, suggesting caution.
• <20 points: The market may be at the bottom of the bear market, making it a possible entry point.

Analysis:
The bull market escape reference is ≥ 90, with the current value at 72. It suggests that the market may be in the mid-to-late stages of a bull market, but not yet at the top. This range is commonly observed in the mid-to-late stages of a bull market, where the market has gained momentum and sentiment, but has not yet fully entered a bubble phase. It is important to note that the CBBI is in the Beta stage, and the composition of the indicator may adjust at any time.

3. Capital Flow and Asset Allocation

Reflects the allocation tendencies of large funds and institutional investors in the market, including ETF fund flows, spot and derivative flows, and the dynamics of capital moving in and out of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Purpose: To track the behavior of major players and the trend of asset reallocation.

Common Indicators:

15) Bitcoin Spot ETF Continuous Net Outflow Days (Days of ETF Net Outflows)

Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a financial tool that allows investors to participate in Bitcoin price fluctuations through traditional financial markets indirectly. Investors buy shares of the fund rather than holding actual Bitcoin, making it accessible to mainstream investors who may not be familiar with cryptocurrency technology.

Main Features of Bitcoin ETF:

• Ownership Difference: Investors hold shares of the ETF fund rather than actual Bitcoin.
• Trading Time Restrictions: ETFs trade on traditional stock markets during specific hours, unlike the 24/7 cryptocurrency market.
• Fee Structure: ETFs have management fees, while holding Bitcoin directly only requires paying trading fees.
• Convenience and Security: Avoids wallet management and private key risks, lowering technical barriers.

Importance:
Bitcoin ETFs are seen as a crucial bridge for mainstream cryptocurrency adoption, attracting institutional and conservative capital and enhancing Bitcoin’s legitimacy and liquidity within traditional financial systems.

Analysis:
Bull market escape reference is ≥ 10, with the current value at 2. The market has not shown signs of large-scale continuous fund withdrawals, indicating healthy adjustment within short-term fluctuations, so it has not yet hit the escape threshold.

16) ETF-to-BTC Ratio

Source: SoSoValue ETF - US Bitcoin Spot ETF

The ETF-to-BTC Ratio is an indicator that measures the amount of Bitcoin held by Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) relative to the total circulating supply of Bitcoin.

It represents the ratio of “the total amount of Bitcoin held by all Bitcoin spot ETFs” to “the total circulating supply of Bitcoin.” This ratio serves as an important observation metric for institutional participation, liquidity lockup, and market structure.

Calculation Formula:
ETF-to-BTC Ratio = (Total amount of Bitcoin held by all Bitcoin ETFs) / (Total circulating supply of Bitcoin)

Practical Uses:

• Market Influence Assessment: This ratio reflects the influence of Bitcoin ETFs in the overall Bitcoin market. A higher ratio may indicate that institutional investors are holding significant amounts of Bitcoin through ETFs, showing strong interest and confidence in Bitcoin.
• Liquidity Analysis: If ETFs hold large amounts of Bitcoin, it may affect market liquidity, as these Bitcoins are typically locked in the fund, reducing the available supply for trading in the market.
• Price Trend Forecast: As more Bitcoin is held by ETFs, the available supply in the market decreases, which may exert upward pressure on prices.

Evaluation Range:

• The higher the ratio → It indicates more BTC is being locked up long-term by ETF institutions, reducing supply and potentially causing upward price pressure.
• The lower the ratio → It indicates lower institutional participation, more ETF outflows, or weakened short-term demand.

Analysis:
Bull market escape reference is ≤ 3.5%, with the current value at 5.34%. The value has exceeded the escape threshold, indicating that institutions are accumulating Bitcoin in large quantities, and the market is in an institution-dominated phase. Although demand is strong, exceeding the critical value may also suggest that short-term capital momentum is approaching saturation, a standard signal in the later stages of a bull market. If ETF growth slows down or turns into outflows, it could trigger a market correction.

17) Bitcoin Dominance

Bitcoin Dominance is an indicator that measures the proportion of Bitcoin’s market capitalization in the entire cryptocurrency market. Specifically, it is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, usually expressed as a percentage. CoinGecko

Calculation Formula:
Bitcoin Dominance = (Bitcoin Market Cap / Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap) × 100%

Importance:

• Market Trend Indicator: Bitcoin Dominance can be used to gauge market sentiment and trends. When the ratio increases, it indicates that investors prefer Bitcoin, often due to an increase in market risk aversion. When the ratio decreases, it may suggest that investors are becoming more interested in other cryptocurrencies (such as Ethereum, Ripple, etc.), potentially signaling the arrival of “altcoin season.”
• Portfolio Adjustment: Investors can adjust their asset allocation based on changes in Bitcoin Dominance. For example, when Bitcoin Dominance increases, it may be appropriate to increase Bitcoin holdings; conversely, if the dominance decreases, one could consider allocating more to altcoins.

Analysis:
The bull market escape reference is ≥ 65%. The current value is 61.95%. We are not yet in the risk zone at the top, but it is getting closer. Attention is needed to see if Bitcoin’s market share continues to rise.

18) MicroStrategy’s Avg Bitcoin Cost

MicroStrategy (now known as Strategy) is an American business intelligence software company that started acquiring Bitcoin as a financial reserve asset in August 2020. As of March 30, 2025, the company holds a total of 528,185 Bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately $35.63 billion, making the average purchase price per Bitcoin about $66,384.56. These holdings account for approximately 2.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Why is MicroStrategy’s cost seen as an escape top reference?

• MicroStrategy represents institutional investors and acts as a “sentiment barometer.”
• MicroStrategy’s cost line = institutional defense line or bullish breakdown point.
• Historically, several times when Bitcoin price broke above MicroStrategy’s cost line, it was followed by an influx of capital into the market.
• Coinglass Setting Reference: BTC ≥ 2x MicroStrategy’s cost

Bitcoin Price vs MicroStrategy’s Cost

• Long-term below: Observe or accumulate at lower prices for the long term.
• Near or slightly above: Consider holding depending on the situation.
• Significantly above (e.g., more than 2x): Exercise caution, consider taking profits gradually.

Analysis:
The bull market escape reference is ≥ 155,655. The current value is 63,657. There is still a significant gap between the current value and the escape reference value, indicating that the market is not overheated and Bitcoin remains in a relatively healthy range, thus not triggering the escape top indicator.

4. On-Chain Data and Holding Behavior

Observing on-chain data to track the behavior of long-term and short-term holders, HODL models, coin destruction days, etc., helps to determine if seasoned investors are taking profits or if the market is cooling down.

Purpose: Monitor the movements of on-chain believers and shifts between long-term and short-term holding behavior.

Common Indicators:

19) Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply

The Long Term Holder (LTH) Supply refers to the amount of Bitcoin held by wallets that have held the asset for more than 155 days. It is used to reflect long-term market confidence and selling pressure.

Reference Range:

• Bullish Signal: When prices are low, if LTH supply continues to increase, it shows that the market is accumulating.
• Warning Signal: When prices are at their highs, if LTH supply decreases, it may signal selling at high prices.

Analysis:
The bull market escape reference is ≤ 13.5M BTC. The current value is 14.61M BTC. At present, LTH supply remains high, and the market has not yet entered a phase of large-scale selling pressure. However, if the holding amount drops rapidly and approaches or falls below the 13.5M level, caution should be exercised, as it may indicate that long-term holders are beginning to release their positions, entering a high-risk zone.

20) Bitcoin Reserve Risk

Reserve Risk indicator overview:

• Main function: Evaluates the confidence level of long-term holders in Bitcoin.

Investment signals:

• Buy signal: When confidence is high but the price is low (green zone).
• Sell signal: When confidence drops but the price is high (red zone).

Calculation: The following factors are used to assess it:

• Bitcoin Destruction Days (BDD): Tracks holding duration.
• Adjusted BDD (ABDD): Considers circulation impact.
• Destruction Coin Value (VOCD): Tracks destruction value.

Why it’s effective: When long-term holders (usually more experienced) begin selling in large quantities, it often signals the market is nearing a top, and ABDD will exceed the average value.

Analysis:
Bull market escape reference ≥ 0.005, current value is 0.0021, still in the safe zone, with no escape pressure yet.

21) Bitcoin RHODL Ratio

RHODL Ratio overview:

Definition and calculation:

• Compares the ratio of 1-week and 1-2 year HODL waves, considering the market age factor.
• Based on UTXO (Unspent Transaction Outputs) realized value, which is the price at the last token transfer.

Usage:

• When the 1-week value is significantly higher than the 1-2 year value, it indicates an overheated market.
• When the ratio approaches the red zone, it’s a good time to take profits.

Advantages:

• Compared to other indicators, it avoids the misjudgment from April 2013, offering higher accuracy.
• It is suitable for long-term investors, helping predict potential pullback points and rebound timings.

Analysis:
Bull market escape reference ≥ 10000, current value is 2682, the RHODL ratio is far below the escape zone. While short-term funds are becoming more active, they have not yet dominated the market, and long-term holders still maintain stability.

5. Stablecoins and Leverage Data

Data related to market liquidity, lending rates, and leverage ratios. These can reveal whether the market is excessively using leverage and whether the cost of capital is too high.

Usage: Measures market bubble risks and lending pressures.

Common indicators:

22) USDT Liquid Savings

This indicator reflects the annualized interest rate for investors who deposit USDT into platforms for “liquid savings,” which is closely related to the demand for USDT funds and market leverage activity. It is an important indicator for measuring market capital costs and reflecting the overall liquidity of the market.

How to interpret:

• Interest rate rising (above 29%):
  Indicates unusually high demand for USDT, often associated with periods of high leverage trading demand. This typically overlaps with market overheating and excessive speculation, signaling that the bull market may be approaching its peak.

• Interest rate low (far below 29%):
  Indicates normal or low demand for funds, with more moderate market sentiment. The bull market has not yet entered a frenzied phase.

Analysis:
Bull market top reference is ≥ 29%, the current value is 5.8%, indicating a normal low range, suggesting that market leverage demand is not high and investors are not excessively borrowing to speculate.

6. Community and Sentiment Heat

This involves observing the enthusiasm of market participants, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), fear index, and public opinion density. It is used to identify whether investors are in a state of collective irrationality.

Purpose: To determine if the market is overheated or entering a phase of market frenzy.

Common indicators:

23) Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is an on-chain indicator used to measure the overall market holders’ unrealized profit and loss, reflecting market sentiment.

Calculation Method:

• Based on two key data points: market capitalization (current price × circulation) and realized value (sum of the last transaction prices).

Market Stage Judgment:

• High NUPL (>50%): Indicates the market is overheated, suitable for taking profits.
• Low NUPL (<0%): Indicates market panic, possibly a buying opportunity.

Practical Value:

• Tracks the balance between market capitalization growth and profit-taking.
• Can be used to predict market tops and bottoms, as high NUPL usually appears before a peak.

This is an important indicator for measuring investor sentiment, helping investors better time the market.

Analysis:
Bull market peak reference is ≥70%. The current value is 47.74%, indicating that the market has not yet reached an extreme profit-taking state. Most holders are in profit, but have not yet entered the frenzy of mass selling.

24) Bitcoin Bubble Index

The Bitcoin Bubble Index, created by Weibo user Ma Chao Terminal, is a comprehensive indicator used to assess whether Bitcoin’s price is deviating from its fundamentals and market sentiment, evaluating the reasonableness of BTC’s market price.

Factors considered in the calculation include:

• Price, 60-day price increase, public sentiment, hash rate difficulty, active addresses, and network transactions.

Usage:

• The higher the index, the more Bitcoin’s price is deviating from the overall market sentiment.
• A negative or low index may indicate a good buying opportunity.

Analysis:
The bull market peak reference is ≥80. The current value is 13.48, indicating that the current price increase is still supported by fundamentals and community sentiment, and has not yet entered an irrational, frenzy-like phase.

7. Altcoin Season and Rotation Observation

Track whether Bitcoin funds begin to shift toward other assets (such as ETH, L1, MEME coins, etc.), and assess whether the overall market is entering a high-risk rotation phase.

Usage: Predict altcoin frenzy and potential risks in the later stages of a bull market.

Common Indicators:

25) Altcoin Season Index

The Altcoin Season Index is primarily used to measure the market performance of non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies (altcoins) and whether they outperform Bitcoin over a specific period. The index is updated daily.

Calculation Basis:

• Altcoins’ relative performance to Bitcoin: If 80% of the top 50 coins in the past 90 days outperform Bitcoin (excluding stablecoins). (Confirmed by the author and Coinglass technical team)
• BTC Market Dominance: The market capitalization share of Bitcoin in the entire cryptocurrency market.
• BTC/Altcoin trading volume and volatility: If altcoin trading volume and prices increase significantly while Bitcoin remains relatively stable, it could signal the start of an altcoin season.
• Community sentiment and public opinion heat.

Usage:

• To determine if the market has entered the “Altcoin Season.”
• As a reference for capital rotation and market structure changes.
• To help investors with asset allocation and risk management.

Interpretation:

• Index ≥ 75: Clearly entering Altcoin Season, with significant capital inflow into altcoins, often observed at the end of a bull market, potentially signaling a top.
• Index ≤ 25: Market capital remains concentrated in Bitcoin, with altcoins underperforming, indicating that Altcoin Season has not yet arrived.

Analysis:

Bull market top reference is ≥ 75. The current value is 20, indicating that altcoins are significantly underperforming Bitcoin, and the market remains Bitcoin-dominated. Altcoins have not yet taken over the leadership from Bitcoin, suggesting the bull market has not yet entered the “final frenzy” phase. From a rotation and capital distribution perspective, the risk of a market top is not yet apparent, but attention should be given to whether this index rises rapidly.

Conclusion

From the seven categories and 25 bull market top signals summarized in this article, it is clear that although the market is in the mid-to-late stage of the Bitcoin bull market, there has been no systemic overheating or bubble formation yet.

If you start feeling that the market is getting too hot, you don’t need to liquidate all positions immediately. Instead, you can take a phased approach:

1. Begin taking profits gradually.
2. Adjust risk exposure and asset allocation by reducing leverage and avoiding FOMO-driven tokens.
3. Increase the flexibility of your funds.
4. Monitor changes in multiple indicators simultaneously.

As mentioned at the outset, it is not advisable to rely solely on a single indicator. If multiple indicators align, the reliability of the market top signal will be higher.

Finally, these indicators are provided for reference only and should not be considered investment advice or absolute predictive tools. True investment wisdom lies in understanding market cycles, managing risk, and protecting profits at the right time. Let’s approach the cryptocurrency market, full of opportunities and challenges, with rationality and patience.