#Gate广场五月交易分享 The market quickly recovered to neutral sentiment after Bitcoin broke through $79K, but shrinking trading volume and long leverage accumulation pose short-term risks. Institutional holdings are undergoing structural changes, with BlackRock potentially surpassing MicroStrategy to become the largest Bitcoin holder, while mining companies accelerate their transition to AI cloud services. On-chain data shows emerging L1/L2 TVL rapidly rising, but many public chains have become “zombie chains.”

Evidence: Bitcoin broke through $79K and tested the $81K-$83K range, with multiple KOLs confirming the breakout; the Fear and Greed Index jumped from 40 to 50 within 24 hours; BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings are valued at approximately $67 billion (unverified); IREN acquired Mirantis through a full stock transaction, with an estimated valuation of about $625 million; emerging chains like Sui, Monad, Ink, etc., have surpassed established public chains like Avalanche and Polygon in TVL.
Mechanism: Technical breakout and continuous ETF inflows
(+$600M on May 1, +$500M on May 4) form a positive feedback loop, with short-term holders’ profits (STH-SOPR > 1.01) supporting the price. Institutions are accelerating their entry via ETF channels, changing the “Saylor-led” narrative. Mining companies leverage their advantages in electricity and data centers to transition into AI cloud services, hedging Bitcoin price volatility risks. Capital is concentrating on leading and emerging high-performance chains, while old public chains face liquidity depletion due to lack of innovation.
Counter scenario: The $81K-$83K range is marked as a “high-risk zone,” with over-leverage liquidation risks; if the breakout fails, it may trigger the “extreme bearish” scenario described in PrecisionTrade3. The 22.87% decline in trading volume indicates weakening upward momentum; if it cannot rebound, current price levels may be unsustainable. Long leverage accumulation (whales with 5x leverage long 307.7 BTC) could trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations.
Watch points: Whether Bitcoin can hold and break through the $81K-$83K range; whether ETF inflows continue (data as of May 5); whether STH-SOPR remains above 1.01; whether trading volume rebounds; whether whale high-leverage long positions are liquidated or continue to add.