Gate on-chain observation ( on October 28, ): Abraxas Capital's short order increased to 480 million USD; "100% win rate Whale" long order exceeds 420 million USD.

As Bitcoin oscillates around the key position of $115,000, on-chain data reveals fierce long and short positions division among the whale camp. Hedge fund Abraxas Capital continues to increase its short strategy, with total notional value of holdings rising to $480 million, including $226 million in ETH shorts, $124 million in BTC shorts, and $97.4 million in HYPE shorts. In contrast, the '100% win rate whale' is continuously expanding its long positions, currently holding 2,083.84 BTC ($237 million) and 47,548.42 ETH ($196 million) long orders, with total position size exceeding $420 million. This battle of long and short positions exceeding $900 million will be a key determinant of the short-term market direction.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

The long and short positions are in intense confrontation, with frequent position adjustments

The Bitcoin market is showing a typical institutional-level long and short game pattern, with both sides strengthening their defenses at key positions:

· “100% win rate Whale” remains bullish: this address continues to increase its position by 41.68 BTC, approximately 4.77 million USD, and has canceled all open orders, showing recognition of the current price. Currently, it holds 2083.84 BTC long positions, worth 237 million USD, with an opening price of 111,897.3 USD, while holding 47548.42 ETH long positions, worth 196 million USD, with an opening price of 3,965.94 USD, totaling over 420 million USD in long positions.

· Abraxas Capital significantly increased short positions: Two addresses marked as Abraxas Capital simultaneously added short orders for BTC at a price level of $116,000, increasing their position size by approximately $7 million. The current notional value of the holdings for the two addresses is approximately $124 million, and their total short positions have increased from $440 million to $480 million over the past week, indicating that this hedge fund holds a strong bearish outlook for the market.

· The follower has started to incur floating losses: Following the address of the “100% win rate Whale” has currently incurred a floating loss of $846,000 due to the higher entry point of long positions. This whale currently holds long positions worth $34.37 million in BTC and $20.12 million in ETH, with no reduction in holdings yet. The take-profit sell orders set by it indicate target levels of breaking through $119,000 for BTC and $4,292 for ETH.

Whale operation strategy differentiation is obvious

· Whale 0x960 stops loss and exits: This whale has completely closed its 15x leveraged BTC, ETH long order positions. Among them, ETH was closed at 4109 USD, and BTC was closed at 113,900 USD, recording a total realized loss of about 1.06 million USD. After closing the positions, this whale has transferred the funds to the spot account to preserve capital, demonstrating its strict risk control discipline.

· New large fund accumulation: A certain whale address has withdrawn 894 Bitcoins (approximately $101.82 million) from the CEX platform in the past 5 days. This kind of continuous off-chain accumulation usually indicates the recognition of medium to long-term value by large holders or institutions, in stark contrast to the short-term speculation in the derivatives market.

Institutional capital flows show divergence

· BlackRock continues to transfer: BlackRock deposited 1,021 Bitcoins (approximately $118 million) and 25,707 ETH (approximately $107 million) into CEX. This ongoing transfer of institutional-level assets may indicate position adjustments or product operational demands.

· “BTC OG” profit taking: The “BTC OG” whale and its related addresses, which have attracted significant market attention, have not made any further moves after a substantial profit during the last market volatility. All funds in the address have been transferred to a CEX wallet, suspected to have completed profit withdrawal, totaling over $171 million in profit. Such ancient whales' profit taking often raises market concerns about a potential local top.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

Whales start to exert short positions, increasing short-term adjustment pressure

There are明显的空头力量增强迹象 in the Ethereum market.

· Whale specializing in short positions: A whale starting with 0x4e8 has opened a 4x leveraged ETH short order, with an average entry price of $4100, and the notional value of the holdings has reached $39.47 million, currently floating profits of about $200,000, while placing a take profit order at $4060. This address deposited $7 million on October 12 and has been active recently, with the principal steadily increasing to $10.06 million. Its trading characteristics include often using full position to open orders, grasping on-chain certainty of ETH intraday corrections with low leverage, preferring right-side trading, with an average holding time of about 12 hours, weekly earnings of $2.2 million, a monthly win rate exceeding 80%, and a weekly trading volume of $518 million.

· New opponents confront boldly: A certain address deposited 5.057 million USDC as margin to conduct its first Hyperliquid trade, becoming a “100% winning rate Whale” new opponent. Currently, he holds 3,464.4 ETH short positions, valued at 14.27 million USD, with an opening price of 4,120.06 USD. The entry of such new funds indicates that the current position is equally attractive to short positions.

· Abraxas Capital increases short positions: Abraxas Capital's ETH short positions rose from $192 million to $226 million, an increase of over $34 million, making it one of the largest ETH short holdings in the market.

Huang Licheng continues to profit, operating methods stabilize

· Long positions synchronized with additional purchases: “Brother Ma Ji” Huang Licheng has once again increased his position by 28,000 HYPE long orders, currently holding 88,000 HYPE long positions at 10 times leverage, with a position size of 4.17 million USD and a current floating profit of 334,000 USD. Additionally, he has increased his position by 250 ETH long orders, currently holding 2,450 ETH long positions at 25 times leverage, with a position size of 10.32 million USD and a current floating profit of 890,000 USD.

· Total position steadily increased: Huang Licheng increased his holdings in HYPE and ETH long orders, with additional amounts of 10,000 HYPE and 300 ETH, bringing the total position scale to 17.15 million USD. His principal has steadily recovered from the previous low of 460,000 USD, indicating a shift towards a more conservative operating strategy.

Profiting cases are increasing

· ASTER Whale large sell-off: A whale deposited 5.34 million ASTER (5.64 million USD) into a CEX, making a profit of 5.32 million USD. This whale withdrew 4.63 million APX from the CEX 6 months ago (worth 283,200 USD at that time) and spent 50,212 USDT to purchase 704.9K ASTER on the Aster platform, while converting APX to ASTER. If he had sold at the peak, he could have made 10.47 million USD.

· Active swing trading: A certain whale address purchased 8.06 million ASTER at a price of $1.13 through the Aster platform, worth $9.14 million, indicating that despite some whales taking profits, there is still capital optimistic about the future performance of ASTER.

3. Other Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

Public Chain Ecosystem: HYPE Continues to Attract Whale Favor

HYPE has become the core battlefield for the whale long and short positions game, with multiple well-known traders heavily positioned.

· The prescient Whale makes precise arrangements: 5 hours before Robinhood announced the launch of HYPE spot trading on October 23, a Whale address opened a long order of 40 million USD in HYPE (5x), and during the past 5 hours, it increased its position in XPL and opened new long orders of 0G and 2Z. Currently, the total position size of this address has reached 52.45 million USD, with a position size of 50 million USD in HYPE, and current floating profit of 8.73 million USD (+87%), demonstrating exceptional information acquisition capabilities.

· Diversified layout of multiple coins: This Whale has not only invested in HYPE but also positioned long orders in XPL (10x) with a scale of $1.13 million, 0G (3x) with a scale of $525,000, PURR (3x) with a scale of $463,000, and 2Z (3x) with a scale of $312,000, indicating its optimistic view on rotation opportunities for small-cap tokens.

DeFi and Meme Sectors: Capital Rotation Accelerates

· Abraxas Capital is fully bearish: Aside from BTC and ETH, Abraxas Capital's HYPE short positions increased from $51.43 million to $97.40 million, nearly doubling. The hedge fund has established short positions on several altcoins, indicating its bearish stance on the entire cryptocurrency sector.

· Small-cap tokens experience increased volatility: As mainstream coins enter a period of fluctuation, funds begin to flow towards small market cap tokens, with emerging tokens such as 0G, 2Z, XPL, and PURR attracting Whale attention, but the volatility risk has also significantly increased.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Overview: Positioning Defense on the Eve of the Long and Short Battle

The current market is in a typical pre-directional choice, with main features including:

· Institutional-level long and short showdown: The short camp represented by Abraxas Capital and the long camp represented by the “100% win rate Whale” are engaged in a showdown exceeding $900 million at the key positions of $115,000 for BTC and $4,100 for ETH.

· Operating strategies have significantly diverged: some Whales choose to stop-loss and exit to preserve their capital, some Whales firmly hold and even increase their positions, while others shift to spot trading to hedge against risks, showing a serious divergence in market participants' judgments about future market trends.

· Risk appetite has decreased: Compared to the previous general high leverage of 20-40 times, current Whale leverage is mainly concentrated in the range of 3-10 times, indicating an overall increase in risk awareness.

Trend Analysis: Key Position Contestation Determines Short-term Direction

Based on on-chain data and position distribution, the market trend forecast for the next 1-3 trading days is as follows:

· Bitcoin Bull-Bear Watershed: The outcome of the struggle for BTC at $115,000 is crucial. If it falls below the support at $113,000, it may dip into the range of $110,000 to $108,000; if it breaks through the resistance at $118,000, it may test the $120,000 round number.

· Key positions for Ethereum: ETH needs to hold the $4050 support; if it breaks below, it may test the range of $3950 to $4000. The resistance above is at $4200 to $4250.

· Risk of altcoin correction: If BTC and ETH experience adjustments, HYPE and other altcoins with large gains may face significant pullbacks. It is necessary to closely monitor the closing actions of Abraxas Capital's $97.4 million HYPE short positions.

· Risk Warning: Attention should be focused on the stop-loss arrangements of the “100% Win Rate Whale” with a $420 million long position, as well as the closing conditions of Abraxas Capital's $480 million short positions. Forced liquidation from either party could trigger severe market fluctuations.

V. Conclusion

When Abraxas Capital increased its short positions to $480 million, when the “100% win rate Whale” maintained a long order of $420 million, and when “Brother Ma Ji” Huang Licheng increased his position to $17.15 million amid ongoing profits, the market is narrating the current long and short battle in the most authentic language of capital. This level of institutional showdown far exceeds the cognitive scope of ordinary retail investors, becoming a comprehensive contest of information, capital, and risk control.

The truth of the market is often held by a few, but there are also fierce debates among those few. When the “BTC OG” chooses to cash out with a profit of $171 million and observe from the sidelines, when the 0x960 Whale prefers to take a loss of $1.06 million to protect capital, and when new funds decisively enter the market as the counterparty to the “100% win rate Whale,” we witness a fierce clash of different investment philosophies in the same market environment. On the eve of this long-short showdown, ordinary investors should perhaps focus more on position risk management rather than blindly following any giant. After all, in this rapidly changing market, those who can survive in the long term are never the most reckless gamblers but rather the wisest with stringent risk control.