U.S. Challenger Job Cuts in August

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Recently, the remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daly have triggered strong expectations in the market for an imminent rate cut by the Fed, which has garnered widespread attention in the crypto world. However, a rate cut is not a panacea for all problems. The Fed faces the challenge of seeking a balance between maximizing employment and maintaining price stability. It is expected that by 2025, the unemployment rate may rise to 4.2%, while the core PCE inflation rate will remain around 3%. This indicates that despite the interest rate hikes lasting for two and a half years, inflationary pressures have not been effectively alleviated, and the employment market has been particularly affected. Historically, a rate cut cycle often drives the prices of crypto assets to rise. However, the positive effects brought by this round of rate cuts may be constrained by several factors. For example, the tariff policies that Trump might implement could lead to a rebound in inflation, the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies still has uncertainties, and Goldman Sachs has also warned that compliance costs could eat into market liquidity. For investors, there are a few suggestions to consider: First, diversify your portfolio to avoid over-concentration in Bitcoin, while allocating a certain proportion of stablecoins to hedge against risks. Second, closely follow the developments of Trump's tariff policies; short-term tax increases may impact the market, but in the long run, they may highlight the safe-haven properties of Crypto Assets. Finally, pay attention to the movements of institutional investors, such as the progress of large financial institutions like BlackRock applying for Bitcoin ETFs. Once approved, it could introduce a significant amount of capital and become a key factor in triggering a bull market. The interest rate cut signifies the beginning of a policy shift and market competition, and the Fed may provide some support for Trump's economic policies. However, the crypto assets market has no savior; investors need to follow the rules of market cycles and accurately grasp the investment direction to seize opportunities. The bull market opportunity is fleeting, and the key lies in whether investors have the courage to make decisions at the right moment.