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本来想等十一月中到十二月时间可能的反弹之后再下结论的
但目前结合各种情况来看,应该是可以说一句,这个周期又结束了
回顾过去四年,大的周期把握得还行,但实际细节表现很差。可以非常直白的承认,一个周期内两次赚到过8位数,又两次亏过8位数。最终也许账面上小赚了一些,但对比预期来说等于白做
进入下一个周期,首先默认的是周期还在,其实自然过渡到周期的转换,再最后则是不同周期基本情况的不同、注定了周期内路径的差异
由此出发,长线做空,预期持续至少8个月。但调低预期,以收益一年之后可能的底部出现时,可用于加仓做多的本金增长30%-50%为预期即可