Bitcoin valuation indicator hints at macro top as ‘death cross’ appears

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin's MVRV death cross signals bearish momentum, historically preceding big price corrections.
• However, the MVRV Z-Score remains well below historical peak levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) could be set for an extended correction in the coming weeks as an overvaluation metric sends a bearish signal. The cryptocurrency market might be experiencing a “macro reversal,” according to crypto analysts.

Bitcoin’s MVRV metric shows “signs of exhaustion”

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an indicator that measures whether the asset is overvalued, recently printed a “death cross,” indicating waning momentum, according to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent

The “MVRV momentum is showing signs of exhaustion with a clear dead cross between the 30DMA and the 365DMA,” the analyst said in a QuickTake analysis on Sunday

The last time the indicator produced this bearish crossover was at the 2021 cycle top, preceding a 77% drop to $15,500 from $69,000 during the 2022 bear market.

Related: Bitcoin at risk of Labor Day crash to $105K as sellers capitalize on OG BTC whale threat

Despite a 13% BTC price rise to $124,500 all-time highs from $109,000 between January and August, the MVRV declined, “indicating weakening capital inflow,” Yonsei_dent said, adding:

“History doesn’t repeat, it rhymes — and the signals from MVRV deserve attention.”

Bitcoin MVRV momentum indicator. Source: CryptoQuantThe MVRV death cross “signals a macro momentum reversal from positive to negative, analyst Ali Martinez said in a Friday post on X.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin price could embark on a prolonged downtrend, with analysts projecting short-term targets around $105,000 and even as low as $60,000 if the bear market takes hold.

Bitcoin rally not overheated, MVRV Z-score shows

Despite this possible bearish scenario, several other onchain indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s $124,500 all-time high is unlikely to be the top. For example, all 30 CoinGlass’ bull market peak signals still show no signs of overheating.

Similarly, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains far below levels historically associated with market tops. That divergence suggests the current rally may still recover from current levels to new all-time highs.

Historically, when market value vastly exceeds realized value, the score enters the red zone (see chart below), signaling overvaluation and often preceding major tops.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z Score chart. Source: Glassnode“When it's high (red zone), people are sitting on massive profits and usually sell. When it's low (green zone), people are underwater and smart money buys,” said popular analyst Stockmoney Lizards in an Aug. 26 post on X

Historical patterns suggest that every macro top coincided with an MVRV Z-score between 7 and 9. In 2017, it surged above 9 before the crash and in 2021, it rose above 7 before reversing

In 2025, the metric is “sitting at around 2,” the analyst said, adding:

“We’re not even close to the danger zone yet. People aren’t massively overextended on profits like they were at previous tops. This tells me we’ve got room to run.”

This indicates that, from an onchain perspective, Bitcoin is not yet overheated and may continue climbing before topping, potentially around the bullish megaphone’s $260,000 price target

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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