In April 2025, Bitcoin traded within a narrow range between $83,000 and $85,200, repeatedly testing but failing to break through the critical $86,000 resistance. This price consolidation is closely linked to subtle shifts in macroeconomic indicators.

U.S. Jobless Claims Data

On April 17, the U.S. Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims at 215,000, below the market expectation of 225,000, signaling continued resilience in the labor market. While this reinforced confidence in the U.S. economy, it also reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut, cooling short-term speculative appetite across risk assets.

On April 16, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the outsized impact of recently introduced “reciprocal tariffs,” warning they could simultaneously drive inflation and slow economic growth.

At a press conference, former President Donald Trump remarked, “I think he (Powell) is terrible, but I can’t complain,” noting the economy was strong during his first term. Trump further criticized Powell, accusing him of “playing politics,” and adding, “I’ve never really liked the guy.”
Trump then concluded, “I think Powell will eventually cut rates. That’s the only thing he’s good at.”

While the Fed signaled no intention to intervene or cut rates, the European Central Bank took the lead by cutting rates from 2.50% to 2.25%—the lowest since late 2022—in a bid to counteract the economic drag from tariffs. This divergence in global monetary policy has fueled market uncertainty, prompting investors to re-evaluate Bitcoin’s role as a hedge.

In technical setup, Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment. According to anonymous trader Titan of Crypto, BTC is compressing within a triangle formation, with the RSI holding above 50 and approaching resistance—suggesting an imminent directional move.

Order flow analyst Magus warns that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $85,000 level soon, the long-term chart could turn bearish. The battle around this price range may not only define the short-term trend but also determine whether Bitcoin can sustain its bullish momentum from 2024.

Historical Parallel: Gold’s Record High and Bitcoin’s Delayed Response

On April 17, gold soared to an all-time high of $3,357 per ounce, drawing increased focus on Bitcoin’s next move.

Historical Correlation Between Gold and Bitcoin

Data shows a strong lagging relationship between gold and Bitcoin: historically, when gold reaches new highs, Bitcoin tends to follow within 100–150 days, breaking its previous peak.

For instance: In 2017, gold surged 30%, and Bitcoin hit $19,120 later that December. In 2020, gold broke past $2,075, and Bitcoin reached $69,000 in November 2021.

This pattern reflects their complementary roles in times of economic uncertainty. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, typically reacts first to inflation expectations and dovish monetary signals, while Bitcoin—due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature—acts as a “digital gold” with lagging momentum.

Bitcoin-gold price correlation

Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya, notes that Bitcoin’s delayed response to gold is tied to its relative market maturity, as institutional reallocations from traditional to digital assets take more time.

Now, The gold’s breakout aligns with Fed policy uncertainty.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz dubbed this period America’s “Minsky Moment”—a tipping point marked by unsustainable debt and collapsing confidence. He argues the simultaneous rise in Bitcoin and gold reflects growing fears over a weakening U.S. dollar and the ballooning $35 trillion national debt, further amplified by global tariff chaos.

Cycle Models and Long-Term Forecasts: Bitcoin’s Power Law and $400K Target

Despite short-term volatility, long-term projections for Bitcoin remain bullish.
Anonymous analyst apsk32, using a “power law time contour” model, predicts Bitcoin could enter a parabolic growth phase in H2 2025, with a potential top at $400,000.

This model normalizes Bitcoin’s market cap against gold’s, measuring BTC value in ounces of gold to frame its valuation narrative within the “digital gold” thesis.

BTC Price vs. Hash Rate Chart

Historical halving cycles support this view. Bitcoin’s quadrennial halvings often spark bull markets 12–18 months later. Following the most recent halving in April 2024, the effects are expected to play out by Q3–Q4 2025.

Meanwhile, institutional demand continues to grow. By February 2025, total net assets in Bitcoin ETFs had reached $93.6 billion, cementing Bitcoin’s role as a mainstream asset class.

However, the market should also be cautious of the risk of overextended expectations. The current rally is largely driven by institutional accumulation and ETF inflows, while retail participation remains subdued. BTC exchange balances have dropped to their lowest levels since 2018, raising concerns about liquidity traps. Unless Bitcoin expands its use cases—such as payments or smart contracts—it could face valuation pressure due to overextended expectations.

Policy Variables: Tariffs, Liquidity Crises, and Market Restructuring

In April 2025, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods surged to 104%, with countries like Japan and Canada also facing the brunt of elevated trade barriers. This wave of protectionism has not only heightened global inflation expectations but also reshaped capital flows. According to Bloomberg data, these tariffs have driven U.S. consumer prices up by approximately 2.5%, adding nearly $4,000 in annual household spending.
Under mounting economic pressure, the Federal Reserve may be forced to restart quantitative easing, potentially fueling excess liquidity and reinforcing Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge.

Tariff policies also underscore Bitcoin’s decentralized advantage. As traditional cross-border payment rails become increasingly constrained, stablecoins like USDT have emerged as critical tools for bypassing capital controls in emerging markets. In countries such as Argentina and Turkey, stablecoins often trade at a 5–8% premium, reflecting an urgent demand amid weakening fiat trust.

Still, the short-term volatility triggered by tariffs is not to be overlooked. On April 9, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $80,000—a 7% intraday plunge—resulting in over $1 billion in liquidations across derivatives markets. This kind of price action highlights that Bitcoin has yet to fully shed its “risk asset” classification, remaining highly sensitive to macro sentiment and leverage wipeouts.

Conclusion: Asset Allocation in a New Economic Paradigm

The current market faces a core dilemma: the mismatch between overstretched policy expectations and insufficient endogenous momentum. Bitcoin’s long-term value hinges on its ability to withstand both regulatory scrutiny and technological limitations.

Investors should be clear-eyed: 2025–2026 could represent Bitcoin’s “last great rally.”
In this shifting landscape, the complementarity between gold and Bitcoin becomes increasingly evident. Gold, with its historical consensus and superior liquidity, remains the ultimate safe haven during crises. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is proving its worth as “Digital Gold 2.0” through low correlation, making it a key component of diversified portfolios.

For everyday investors, a portfolio balanced between physical gold and leading cryptocurrencies, while also keeping an eye on mispriced opportunities in emerging market bonds, may be the most effective strategy for navigating volatility.

History may not repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes. Whether it’s Bitcoin’s $85,000 pivot point or gold’s record-breaking $3,357 high, these numbers symbolize deeper structural shifts in the global economic order. Only with rational thinking and long-term vision can investors seize new opportunities amid uncertainty.

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