1. Macroeconomic Liquidity (Most Critical)

- Fed Rate Cut Expectations Easing: Divergence in January minutes, market delays rate cut expectations, liquidity tightening expectations suppress high-risk assets

- Bitcoin's Non-Hedge Properties Highlighted: During geopolitical tensions, it doesn't rise with gold but instead leads declines, fundamentally a high-volatility risk asset

2. Capital Flow (Institutional Withdrawal)

- US Spot Bitcoin ETF Continues to Experience Net Outflows, Total Outflow of $3.7 billion from Crypto ETPs over Four Weeks

- Institutional Reductions (Harvard Reduced Holdings by 21%), Crypto Concept Stocks (MicroStrategy, Mining Companies) Drop 4%–5% in Tandem

3. Market Sentiment and Leverage

- Fear and Greed Index = 9 (Extreme Fear), Emotional Bottom

- Chain Reaction of High Leverage Liquidations: On February 6, 580,000 Liquidations, $2.665 billion Evaporated, Creating a Malicious Cycle of Decline → Liquidation → Further Drop

4. Technical Analysis (Bearish Dominance)

- Daily Bearish Arrangement, MACD Below Zero Line, RSI Oversold but Not Reversing
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- Key Levels:
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- Support: $66,000–$68,000 (Current); $60,000 (Strong Support/Options Wall)
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- Resistance: $69,000 → $71,000–$73,000 (Concentrated Short Positions)