12.9 ETH Afternoon Market Analysis

I. Core Logic Support

1. Macro Catalysts: Strong expectations for a Fed rate cut today, anticipated liquidity easing benefits high-beta ETH. Exercise caution before the decision, volatility will increase but downside is limited.
2. Capital Flow: Institutions are continuously buying in the $3050-$3100 range, net outflows from exchanges are increasing, selling pressure is easing.
3. Technicals: Support at $3050-$3080 (( moving average golden cross )), $3000 (( psychological level )); resistance at $3170-$3200 (( high-volume zone )), $3240 (( recent high )). 1-hour chart shows a descending wedge; a breakout above the upper trendline with volume could signal a rally.

II. Trend Qualitative Analysis: Range-bound with Bullish Bias

Currently oscillating between $3080-$3170, bulls maintain momentum but strength is waning; need a breakout with volume for directional confirmation. Highly likely to remain in this range from 12:00-16:30, with no unilateral move—mainly consolidating.

III. Trading Strategy

1. Long (Main Direction)

- Conservative Long: Enter in batches at $3080-$3100, stop loss at $3020, targets at $3170-$3180 (reduce position by 50%), $3220.
- Breakout Long: Enter on a high-volume breakout above $3140 and hold above it for 5 minutes, stop loss at $3110, target $3180-$3220.

2. Short (Supplementary)

- Conservative Short: Enter at $3170-$3180 if resistance holds, stop loss at $3210, targets $3120-$3100.
- Breakdown Short: Enter on a break below $3080 with weak rebound, stop loss at $3130, target $3050-$3030.
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