#美联储货币政策走向 Analysis of recent market data shows that the likelihood of a year-end rebound in US stocks is increasing. Although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have pulled back 4-7% from their October highs, they have found support at the 100-day moving average. The selling pressure from systematic funds has eased, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December has created favorable conditions for a rebound. Notably, the VIX futures curve has shown a rare spot premium, indicating that short-term uncertainty is higher than long-term. Overall, current market sentiment and positioning have been significantly dampened, which in turn lays the groundwork for a year-end rebound. It is recommended to focus on high-tech and momentum stocks, which may perform well in December. However, it is still necessary to closely monitor the direction of Fed policy, as this will be a key factor affecting the market.