#美联储降息预期 Looking back, every rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been like the opening act of an economic drama. I have experienced multiple market cycles and witnessed countless times how Fed policies have had a profound impact on global asset prices. The upcoming Beige Book is likely to become a weathervane for the direction of future monetary policy.

From historical experience, the Beige Book is often an important reference for the Fed's policy decisions. I remember during the 2008 financial crisis, the pessimistic descriptions of economic conditions in the Beige Book directly triggered a series of aggressive rate cuts. And the slow rate hike cycle that began in 2015 was actually foreshadowed in the Beige Book.

The current market expectation for rate cuts is so strong that it reminds me of the aftermath of the 2001 dot-com bubble burst. At that time, the market was equally convinced that the Fed would cut rates significantly, and that did come true. However, history rarely repeats itself so simply. This time, inflationary pressures persist and the global geopolitical situation is more complex, making the Fed's decision-making likely more challenging than ever.

For those of us who have been through many cycles, the most important thing is to remain calm and rational. Don’t be swayed by short-term market sentiment—focus on the long-term trends. Regardless of the Beige Book’s contents, we must be prepared for all possibilities. After all, real opportunities often lie in anticipating the market's reaction, not just guessing the policy itself.

Let’s wait and see what kind of shock this Beige Book will bring to the market. Whatever the outcome, it will become another important reference point for analyzing the current economic cycle.