#美SEC促进加密资产创新监管框架 Those who truly understand the industry know that market bottoms are often not when retail investors panic, but rather when even the most steadfast long-term players begin to waver.

Recently, there’s an on-chain indicator worth pondering—Behavior Weighted Trend Signal (BWTS). Its brilliance lies in the fact that it doesn’t just focus on ordinary loss-driven selling, but specifically tracks whether those “settled chips” that should be rock solid are also starting to loosen. When coins held for a long time begin to be sold, it means the market is experiencing a “trend capitulation”—a phenomenon that is a classic signal of emotional exhaustion.

Looking back at historical data reveals an interesting pattern: whenever the red line of BWTS and the black line of BTC price diverge, it usually indicates that panic selling pressure is gradually being absorbed. This divergence is no coincidence; it often appears on the eve of a brewing rebound.

The current BWTS pattern is quite similar to certain past phases. You could interpret it this way: the market already has the basic conditions for a rebound, and as long as this divergence structure remains intact, there’s still potential for upward momentum.

But here’s a word of caution. The Luna crash in May 2022 is a bloody lesson—back then, the market had already formed a divergence structure, but it was directly disrupted by that black swan event, causing the anticipated rebound to die prematurely and triggering an even deeper drop. So, the impact of sudden events can disrupt the market’s natural recovery pace.

From a trading perspective, BWTS gives us a unique angle to observe market sentiment. When even the most patient long-term holders start to capitulate due to short-term pressure, it often means the last batch of sellers is clearing out. And this clearing out usually happens right before a new round of rally begins—the sign that bearish forces have been exhausted is already emerging.

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