The real protagonist of the crypto market in December isn’t the candlestick chart—it’s the two potentially conflicting central bank meetings.

The market seems a bit confused right now, but the logic is actually pretty clear: the US is getting ready to ease up, while Japan might be about to hit the brakes.

**First, the December 10 Fed meeting**

CME data is right there, with the probability of a rate cut steady at over 85%. This is basically a done deal.

What does a rate cut mean?
- Money will get a bit looser
- Risk assets will get some breathing room
- US stocks and Bitcoin will get some short-term support

In theory, this is good news, and the market should go up.

**But the Bank of Japan might make a move on December 19**

This is the biggest variable this month. The BOJ governor has already said, “We may need to raise rates.”

If they actually do it, it’s a big deal:
- Yen carry trades (borrowing at low rates to buy high-risk assets) will start to unwind
- Global markets will be forced to deleverage
- Highly volatile assets like crypto will be hit first

The probability isn’t high, but the impact could be huge.

**Two opposing forces—who’s stronger?**

In a bull market, a Fed rate cut can completely offset the impact of a BOJ hike. But right now we’re in a bear market—good news doesn’t do much, bad news hits hard.

So my take is: the negative impact of a BOJ rate hike > the positive stimulus of a Fed rate cut.

This leads to:
- There could be a short-term rebound
- But once the BOJ decision lands, the chance of a second bottom is higher

December will likely be a “smooth at first, tough later” kind of month.

**So what to do?**

Don’t get too optimistic—stay cautious in the medium term. Before the BOJ shows its hand, don’t go all-in on any direction.

Specific strategies:
- Sell some holdings on rebounds
- If there’s a pullback, you can try a small long position
- Stay flexible and strictly control leverage

The more critical the moment, the more you need to stay steady. If you get the direction right in December, you’ll have an edge in the first half of next year.