$BTC Market Update: Stopping the Bleeding ≠ A Cure. Don't Pop the Champagne Yet. 📉📊

Today, we’re ignoring altcoins to focus solely on #BTC. The logic is simple: if the macro structure is shaky, everything else is just noise. Until Bitcoin confirms a bottom and stabilizes, any altcoin rally lacks legs.

The month-long bleed from 126K down to 84K has been a true test of conviction. While we’ve seen two green prints recently, if you zoom into the 4H chart, it’s clear this isn't a reversal signal yet. It's just a technical bounce from oversold conditions.

📊 Chart Reality Check The current setup is crystal clear: a textbook descending channel.

Structure: Lower Highs and Lower Lows. This is a classic bearish technical arrangement.

Volume: The bounce from $84K to current levels around $91K hasn't seen significant volume expansion. This implies weak organic buying; it looks more like passive short-covering.

Indicators: MACD printed a golden cross below the zero line, but it’s still deep underwater. Simply put: the car engine has restarted, but we’re stuck in first gear struggling uphill. No real power yet.

🌏 Macro Forces: The Long/Short Tug-of-War

BoJ (Japan): Ueda’s hawkish stance (rate hike expectations) hangs like a sword of Damocles over global markets, capping upside for risk assets.

Fed (USA): Despite markets pricing in a December rate cut, capital is clearly hesitant here. BTC is chopping in the gap between "liquidity crunch fears" and "easing expectations."

💎 Key LevelsMemorize these numbers; this is the battlefield for the next few days:

Current Price: ~$91,000 (Weak chop).

Resistance 1: $95,000. First short-term hurdle. Must reclaim this with volume to even talk about the bleeding stopping.

Resistance 2 (CRITICAL): $99,600. Previous high-volume node now acting as a concrete ceiling. Until we flip this to support, every move up is just a dead cat bounce.

Support: $84,000. Last night’s wick low. If this breaks again, we need to recalculate the entire depth of this correction.

🎯 Trading Playbook

Don't get faked out: This is a bounce within a downtrend. Chasing longs here is high risk. Don't see a few green percentages and scream "bull market is back."

Patience pays (Wait for Confirmation): The safe right-side entry is after reclaiming and holding $95K. Better to buy slightly higher with confirmation than catch a falling knife.

Range trading: Current conditions suit short-term scalping between $88K - $94K. Buy support, sell resistance.

Mindset: Bull market corrections exist to shake out weak hands. Whales are currently trading "time" for "space." Your job is capital preservation—survive until the trend reverses.

ConclusionThis isn't a V-shape recovery; it's a period of convalescence. The market is wounded and needs time to heal. Until we clear the $99,600 level, sit on your hands. Watch more, trade less. 📉👀
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$BTC Explanation: Stopping the bleeding does not mean healing, don't rush to open the champagne 📉📊

Today we won't talk about other coins, but focus on #BTC. The logic is simple: if the market is unstable, no matter how much other coins fluctuate, they are just noise. Before Bitcoin confirms a stop in the decline and stabilizes, any altcoin's market lacks sustainability.

From 126K to 84K, this more than one month pullback has indeed tested faith. Although in the past two days, there have been two green bars appearing on the chart, if you open the 4-hour K-line chart and look closely, you will find that this is not yet a reversal signal; it is just a technical recovery after an oversold condition.

📊 Let's imagine the K line (Chart Reality) The current trend is very clear, it is a standard descending channel:

Pattern: Higher Highs and Lower Highs (, Lower Lows and Lower Lows. This is a typical bearish formation in technical analysis.

Volume: From ) bouncing to the current $91K, the trading volume has not significantly increased. This means that the active buying is not strong; rather, it is more of a natural rebound after short sellers take profits.

Indicator: MACD Although it has crossed above the zero line under water, it is still far from the zero axis. In simple terms, the car has restarted, but it is still in first gear climbing uphill, lacking power.

🌏 Macro Game: Tug of War Between Bulls and Bears

Bank of Japan $84K BoJ (: Kazuo Ueda's hawkish stance (interest rate hike expectations) hangs like a sword overhead, limiting the upside potential for risk assets.

Federal Reserve )Fed(: Although the market is betting on a rate cut in December, funds are clearly hesitant at the current position. BTC is oscillating in the gap between "liquidity crunch panic" and "easing expectations".

💎 Key Levels ) Remember these numbers, this is the battlefield for the next few days:

Current price: $91,000 (weak oscillation).

Resistance Level 1: $95,000. The first hurdle for the short term, it must break through here with volume in order to discuss a bottoming out.

Resistance level 2 ( key ): $99,600. This is the previous area of concentrated positions, now turned into a strong resistance ceiling. Until it stands above here, all upward movements can only be regarded as a rebound.

Support level: $84,000. Last night's spike low. If it breaks again, the depth of this round of correction will need to be recalculated.

🎯 Operational Strategy ( Trading Playbook )

Don't be fooled: this is a rebound in a downtrend, and chasing after the rise at this time is extremely risky. Don't think the bull market is back just because it has risen a few points.

Be patient ( Wait for Confirmation ): A safe right-side buying point is after breaking through and standing firm at (. It is better to buy at a higher price than to buy with uncertainty.

Interval trading: The current market conditions are suitable for short-term high selling and low buying between ) and $95K .

Mindset Management: Pullbacks in a bull market are often meant to shake off weak hands. Right now, the main players are using "time" to exchange for "space"; what you need to do is protect your capital and survive until the trend reverses.

Conclusion This is not a V-shaped reversal; this is a period of consolidation. The market is hurt and needs time to recover. Before breaking through the $99,600 level, hold back, observe more and act less. 📉👀

$88K Crypto #Market Analysis