A friend asked me why I suddenly stopped updating on weekends these past two or three weeks. Actually, no matter how busy I was before, I would always spend one or two hours every day watching the market and writing content. However, after spending an afternoon in the emergency room dealing with kidney stones last week, I suddenly realized that a person cannot always stay in a closed space. Sitting for long periods and overthinking is truly not a good thing. So for the past few weekends, I have forced myself to disconnect from the internet: after dinner on Saturday, I completely avoid looking at the market, go fishing, hiking, or find some outdoor activities to really clear my mind.

Speaking of the market. Last Friday and Saturday, I focused on the question of "bounce or reversal" and provided a reference standard—the 21-week moving average. The logic is very simple: if the price is below the moving average, it is a bounce; only when it stands above can it be considered a reversal. Strictly speaking, the current position is a bit off from the suppression range I drew, but it can be considered that it just touched the lower boundary of the range.

As for the oscillation safe support level I mentioned before, it has collapsed directly this time and has not held at all. The reason is quite clear — the expectation of interest rate hikes in Japan has stirred the pot again. The market has memory; everyone should still remember the plunge triggered by the hints of interest rate hikes in Japan from the end of July to the beginning of August last year. This kind of news is like that; the impact is always uncertain.

On Saturday, I also mentioned a strategy: looking at certain targets (like fun) from the perspective of chip concentration. Coins with high concentration often temporarily break away from the market correlation and show independent trends. This strategy is indeed quite applicable at the current stage. Although I was stopped out of my leverage position earlier, I later bought some spot again and continued to hold.

That's basically it for last week's content. Let's talk about how the market is doing this week after I catch up on the information I've missed in the last two days.