DOGE is hovering at a key support level, and the exchange's net inflow has just turned positive.

Key Highlights: DOGE weekly holds the 0.5 logarithmic Fibonacci support (approximately $0.154), but the highs are gradually declining, creating a constricted space.

Support level held, but buying pressure is declining

Technical analysts point out that the rebound midpoint of DOGE from its low of $0.049 at the end of 2023 to this year's high of $0.48—$0.154—has become a key dividing line. This line, plotted on a logarithmic scale, represents the 50% median of the entire cycle's increase and serves as the “neutral pivot” for bulls and bears: closing above it indicates that the upward trend can still be repaired, while a drop below signals a complete reversal.

The weekly chart is still near this banded area, but the problem is that the series of lower highs suggests momentum exhaustion. Once the weekly close dips below $0.154, the next line of defense is the 0.382 Fibonacci level (around $0.118). The upper resistance is at the 0.618 level ($0.20), and there is not much room for adjustment in the middle area.

On-Chain Signal Reversal: Exchange Balances Turn Positive for the First Time

Interestingly, the exchange net inflow has just turned positive after months of negative values. Glassnode data shows that the net position indicator for DOGE has suddenly surged into positive territory—this is the first time since August.

The previous long red bars represent a withdrawal wave, meaning that holders are actively withdrawing from the exchange during the decline, reducing selling pressure. Now that a green spike has appeared, it indicates that a large amount of DOGE has recently flowed into centralized exchanges. Historically, such turning points are often accompanied by extreme volatility, and the previous instances of green surges have all occurred at critical rebound points.

The current question is: Is the influx of a large number of tokens for bottom fishing or preparing to dump? The technical analysis has not provided an answer yet.