The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to 216,000, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has reached 85%.

The latest unemployment data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that for the week ending November 22, the number of initial unemployment claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 after seasonal adjustment. This figure is significantly better than the 225,000 that economists had previously expected, indicating that the employment market has not experienced a significant deterioration.
Initial jobless claims, as a key indicator of the labor market, directly reflect trends in corporate layoffs and short-term fluctuations in the employment market. Due to Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday, the report is released one day early. Meanwhile, the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly to 1.96 million in the previous week, showing an overall upward trend since September.

The latest "Beige Book" released by the Federal Reserve shows that there has been little overall change in U.S. economic activity recently, but overall consumer spending has declined further. The report indicates that about half of the districts noted a weakening in labor demand, with more companies limiting their workforce through hiring freezes, replacement hiring only, and natural attrition.
In terms of price, tariffs remain a major concern for businesses, with a general reflection of increased input cost pressures. Many companies report that tariffs have led to tighter profit margins, but some have indicated that prices have actually decreased due to declining demand.
There is significant disagreement within the Federal Reserve on whether to continue lowering interest rates in December. Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut in December, believing that most private sector data indicates a weak job market. Fed's Daly also supports a rate cut next month, arguing that the likelihood of a sudden deterioration in the job market is greater than that of a sudden rise in inflation.
However, Boston Federal Reserve President Collins stated that she believes there is no need for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in December. She pointed out that, given the inflation rate continues to be above the Federal Reserve's 2% target level, a moderately restrictive policy may still be appropriate.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Federal Reserve Watch Tool, the market expects there is nearly an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. Economists at JPMorgan have changed their forecast, believing that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in December, reversing their judgment from a week ago that policymakers would delay the cut until January of next year.
It is worth noting that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the release of the October CPI report, and the November CPI data will be delayed until December 18. This means that Federal Reserve officials will not have access to key economic data before the monetary policy meeting, which adds difficulty to their decision-making.
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