📉 [November 5th Update | $100,000 support level breached, bullish traders returned to square one overnight, a few things to know about crawling back from the abyss]

😭 How miserable was yesterday?
Account Slimming: Bitcoin has fallen over 20% from its historical high in October, dropping below 100,000 to reach 98,000 last night, and it broke through the black swan spike of 101,000, marking the first time it has fallen below the 100,000 mark since June.

Bullish traders collectively buried: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $2.065 billion, among which long positions accounted for $1.675 billion, making up the majority. More than 470,000 people experienced liquidations.

"Whale" selling situation: Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a massive outflow of funds, with a net outflow of $578 million yesterday (Eastern Time, November 4), marking the fifth consecutive day of net outflows. Among them, Fidelity's FBTC saw an outflow of $357 million, and ARKB had an outflow of $128 million.

🔍 The culprit of the crash: it's not just because of "panic"
This decline is the result of multiple factors combined:
1. Macro "pump" starts:
Government shutdown - TGA account balance surges - over $200 billion in liquidity has been pulled out, creating a crisis - risk assets under pressure, Bitcoin plummets.
US stock risks spill over: CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warn that US stock valuations are too high, and risk sentiment spreads to the cryptocurrency market.

2. Internal capital outflow:
Continuous outflow of ETF funds: The Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net outflow for several consecutive days, indicating that the previously significant institutional buying support is weakening.
De-leveraging in the futures market: The total open interest of BTC contracts across the network has decreased by 5.09% in the past 24 hours, indicating that the market is actively reducing leverage, which has also intensified the downward momentum.

3. Technical Analysis "Avalanche":
Key support lost: Bitcoin has fallen below the important psychological and technical threshold of $100,000, triggering a large number of programmed sell orders and leveraged liquidations.

🧭 Today's tone: Oversold rebound, but not a reversal.

Market sentiment is extremely weak, and any rebound will face selling pressure.
Bullish-Bearish Watershed: $103,500 - $105,000

Support: $100,000 ( psychological barrier ), $98,800 ( yesterday's low )
Resistance: $105,000 ( strength key ), $107,500

Contract Strategy
Aggressive bulls: Those who did not enter long positions at 98,000 this morning can try light long positions at 100,000-101,000 with a stop loss at 98,800. The furthest target is 103,500, with intermediate take profits.

Steady short: A rebound to 104,000-105,000 shows stagnation for a short position, stop loss at 106,000, target at 100,500.

Spot Strategy
Batch orders, reject one-shot orders.
BTC: Consider the first buy below 100,000, and the second buy below 98,000. The key is to control the total position and keep enough cash.

Data reference ( as of November 5 )

Potential liquidation hotspots: According to Coinglass data, if the price of Bitcoin falls below $102,000, the cumulative liquidation intensity of long positions on major exchanges is expected to reach 454 million (intensity value).
On the contrary, if it can break through $104,000, the liquidation intensity of short positions is approximately 186 million (intensity value).
This indicates that the resistance above is relatively small, but the potential selling pressure below remains heavy.

💎 Confidence and Reminder
Bull markets are always born out of despair. Although there is short-term pain, $100,000 is a key psychological and technical support level. Some analysts believe that the current plunge may be a deep "washout" aimed at clearing excessive leverage from the market.

Finally:
What the current market needs is patience, not gambling. If you preserve your capital, you will earn a ticket for the next round of price increase.

Data sources: CoinGlass, ForesightNews, PANews, ChainCatcher, etc. The views do not constitute investment advice.