Reminder on October 28: Be cautious of "Favourable Information" being fully priced in after the interest rate cut.

Market sentiment is indeed more optimistic than last week. This week, global market events are dense, aptly termed "Super Central Bank Week", with the core focus undoubtedly being the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The key events to watch this week are ⬇️

📅 October 30 ( Thursday ) Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the market expects a very high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut (about 98%-99%). The focus is on Powell's press conference for guidance on the future rate cut path and whether there will be an announcement to stop quantitative tightening (QT).
📅 October 30 ( Thursday ) Bank of Japan and European Central Bank interest rate decisions, with the market generally expecting both central banks to maintain interest rates unchanged. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's hints on the timing of rate hikes, as well as the European Central Bank's statements on inflation and economic outlook.
📅 October 31 ( Friday ) US September Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. August data remained at a high level of 2.9% year-on-year; pay attention to whether the September data will decline.
⏳ The U.S. government shutdown has persisted throughout this week, resulting in the delay of most economic data releases and increasing market uncertainty.

🔍 In-depth analysis of key events
📉 Federal Reserve Decision: Not Just Lowering Interest Rates
The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will almost certainly cut rates by 25 basis points, but the market is more concerned about future signals.
Investors are eagerly looking for clues from Powell's press conference and the latest "dot plot" regarding whether there will be further interest rate cuts in December and next year. Any concerns about an economic slowdown could be interpreted as dovish signals, while emphasizing sticky inflation may be seen as hawkish.

The possibility of stopping quantitative tightening (QT): Market analysis predicts that the Federal Reserve may announce the cessation of balance sheet reduction at this meeting. If realized, it means the halting of the behavior of withdrawing liquidity from the market, which is potentially Favourable Information for risk assets.

💹 Core PCE: Delayed Key Data
Due to the government shutdown, the September core PCE data, which should have been released earlier, has been delayed until Friday. This data is crucial because:
* It is the core basis for the Federal Reserve's decision-making.
* The core PCE year-on-year growth rate in August was 2.9%, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. If the September data remains stubborn, it may weaken the Federal Reserve's willingness to continue cutting interest rates in the future.

🌍 Other factors that should not be overlooked
US Stock Earnings Season: This week is the busiest week of the US stock earnings season, with five of the "Tech Giants" (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta) reporting their earnings. Their performance will significantly impact the Nasdaq index, which in turn will influence the cryptocurrency market.
Geopolitics and Liquidity: The risks associated with events such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and the high levels of U.S. federal debt remain potential sources of market volatility.

📊 Contract Operation Reference
During major risk event weeks, market volatility will intensify. The following levels are for reference only; be sure to combine them with real-time market conditions and strictly manage risks.

BTC
The market is in a fluctuating uptrend, be wary of event volatility.
Support: 112,500 - 113,500:
Resistance: 116,500 - 117,500 |
Consider trying a light long position after stabilizing at the upper edge of the support zone, with a stop loss reference below 112,000.
If it reaches a resistance zone and stagnates, consider a short position.
ETH
Linking to the big cake, pay attention to the intensity
Support: 4,080 - 4,150
Resistance: 4,300 - 4,350
Consider lightly entering a long position after stabilizing in the support zone, with a stop loss reference below 4,050. Pay attention to whether it can break through 4,250 and challenge higher resistance.

💡 Summary and Suggestions
The current market has priced in interest rate cut expectations (with a probability of 98.3%), and the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on Wednesday (30th) at 2 AM.
Stay vigilant: Market sentiment can be volatile before and after major events, leading to significant fluctuations. Avoid using high leverage.
Focus on liquidity: Keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve's decision to stop QT, as this may have a greater impact on the medium to long-term liquidity in the market than simply a 25 basis point rate cut.
Flexible Response: Adjust positions and strategies flexibly based on the actual results of PCE data, Powell's speech, and US stock earnings reports.

I hope this整理 can help you better plan your trading for this week. Please note that all the analyses above are based on publicly available information and do not constitute any investment advice.
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