📢[October 20 Evening Update | Three Factors Driving the Rise, Beware of Nighttime Trend Reversal Risks] Did you catch this rebound?

📈 Analysis of Today's Price Increase

The trade situation between China and the United States has eased. During an interview, Trump confirmed that he will meet with Chinese officials in two weeks and candidly stated that a 100% tariff is "unsustainable." This statement significantly alleviated market anxiety and became the core driving force behind the rebound of risk assets.
Market sentiment is recovering, and the US stock market sentiment has been soothed, with the three major indices closing up about 0.5% on the 17th. Although the fear index VIX remains high, it has retreated from its peak, indicating a slight improvement in market risk appetite.
Long positions support, according to the latest long and short position data, the long position ratio of the Nasdaq 100 index has reached 89%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market, which provides funding support for the rise.

🔍 Long and Short Technical Indicator Analysis

Key position of BTC
Bullish support line: 108,500 - 109,100 (4-hour level support)
Breakthrough target: 111,600 - 112,500 (accelerate after stabilizing at 110,350)
Short Attack: 113,000 - 113,500 (Previous High Resistance Area)

Key position of ETH
Bullish defense line: 3,920 - 3,950 (4-hour level support)
Breakthrough target: 4,088 - 4,150 (looking up after stabilizing at 4,000)
Short-Selling Ambush: 4,180 - 4,200 (Key Resistance Zone)

Positive signal: The price has stabilized at a key support level, and the bottom structure has not been broken.
Risk signal: Some analysts point out that the US Dollar Index is supported around 98, and there is a possibility of a short-term rebound correction. If the dollar strengthens, it may suppress the gains of cryptocurrencies.

⚠️ Evening Risk Warning

1. Federal Reserve Meeting Preview
The Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation conference on October 21 (tomorrow) to discuss topics such as stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization. Any hints regarding regulatory attitudes at that time could potentially cause market volatility.
The market's probability expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in October remains as high as 99%. It is necessary to be vigilant that after expectations are fully realized, the market may experience a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" scenario.
2. The US stock market transmits risks
Although the VIX panic index has retreated from its peak, it remains at a relatively high level for the year, indicating that market nerves are still taut.
The earnings season for US stocks is still ongoing, and if corporate performance guidance falls short of expectations, it may drag down the cryptocurrency market.
3. Geopolitical Uncertainty
Although China and the U.S. have released signals of easing tensions, the tariff deadline on November 1 has not been officially canceled, and any reversals in the trade situation could potentially be negative.

💎 Summary and Suggestions

Today's rise is mainly driven by "emotional recovery," and the key technical support has been maintained. However, there are significant uncertainties during the night; therefore, the suggested operations are:
Spot positions: Can continue to hold, but avoid chasing highs.
Contract operation: Strictly set stop loss, BTC long position stop loss reference below 108,500, ETH long position stop loss reference below 3,900.
Position Management: It is recommended that the total position does not exceed 50%, leaving enough cash to cope with fluctuations.

Key focus: news related to tomorrow's Federal Reserve payment innovation conference, as well as the performance of US stocks after the market opens.

The above is a personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice. #巨鲸加仓2.5亿美元BTC #十月降息预测