📢 [October 14 Evening Update | Market Awaits Powell, Key Long and Short Positions Fully Analyzed]

📉 Evening market overview

· BTC is currently at $111,900 (down over 2% for the day), with key support at 112,500-114,000 being repeatedly tested.
· ETH broke below $4000 (down over 3% intraday), currently hovering in the short zone of 3980-4010.
· Market Sentiment: Panic spreads, total market capitalization shrinks to $3.957 trillion, derivatives trading volume increases against the trend by 7.5% to $2.48 trillion (intensified long-short battle).

🎙️ Macro Focus: Powell Sets the Tone Late at Night

· At 00:20 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the National Association for Business Economics, with the theme "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy."
· Market demand:
Dovish Desire: If a signal of "accelerated interest rate cuts" is released, it will boost risk assets.
Hawkish vigilance: Emphasizing "inflation stickiness" or "delayed rate cuts" may replicate the September "sell the fact" plunge.
Probability Prediction: The probability of a rate cut in October remains as high as 97%, but the leverage bubble (such as Deribit rates at 25%) amplifies volatility risks.

🎯 Contract Strategy: Strictly control stop loss, avoid holding positions.

BTC
112,500-114,000 (light position try long)
115,500-116,000 (stagnation short sell)
Stop loss at 111,500, short selling to 109,500 after breakdown.
ETH
3,950-4,000 (stabilizing low long)
4,100-4,150 (under pressure to short)
Stop loss at 3,880, if it breaks 4,180 then look down to 3,800

💡 Spot Position Recommendations

1. Core Assets:
· BTC: Accumulate in batches in the range of 112,500-114,000 (long-term support is solid).
· ETH: Dollar-cost averaging below $4,000, focusing on laying out the DeFi underlying protocols (such as UNI, AAVE).
2. Shanzhai Lightning Protection:
· Avoid new coins with high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation), and prioritize leading ecosystems like BNB and SOL.
· Beware of the "Trump tariff narrative" related cryptocurrencies (such as supply chain concept tokens).

🌪️ Night Risk Warning

· Powell's speech volatility: Historical data shows that during speeches, BTC's amplitude often exceeds 5%.
· Liquidity trap: Stablecoin market capitalization shrinks by 3.11%. If the rebound is without volume, it is easy to form a "false breakout".
· Political black swan: Trump's tariff policy (November 1st node) remains a sword of Damocles.

Finally:
Bull markets often have sharp declines, but don't sell your bottom positions in panic. Maintain a position of ≤50%, keep enough bullets to deal with extreme volatility, and wait for Powell to give direction before striking!

Data source: CoinGlass, Gate, Jinse Finance, the views do not constitute investment advice.
#今日你看涨还是看跌？