#4月CPI数据公布

Is the CPI weakness an illusion? See through the hidden cards of "stagflation-style recovery".
Despite the CPI's growth rate slowing to 3.4%, the economy has not fully recovered, which may be a prelude to a "stagflation-type recovery." Employment growth has slowed, the manufacturing PMI has fallen back below 50, and price levels remain high.
This is the most dangerous macro combination: weak growth and uncontrolled inflation. Data shows that consumer spending among low-income households is declining the fastest, while high-end service consumption remains relatively stable. This structural gap will limit the rebound in total demand.
Policymakers may find themselves in a "dilemma": stimulating growth will exacerbate inflation, while suppressing inflation will sacrifice employment and growth. Once expectation management gets out of control, it will trigger a deeper revaluation of assets.
Investors are advised to maintain a defensive allocation, as gold, inflation-protected bonds, and essential consumer goods still hold allocation value. During times of economic uncertainty, being prudent is far more important than betting on trends.