Will Bitcoin become the United States' next "strategic target" as Trump takes over Venezuela's oil assets?

US President Trump recently announced that the “interim authorities” in Venezuela will transfer approximately 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, which will be sold at market prices by the US side, with the proceeds directly controlled. Based on current oil prices, this batch of oil could be worth up to $2.8 billion. A few days ago, news of the US military capturing Nicolás Maduro further reinforced external expectations of systematic takeover of Venezuelan assets.

As oil assets are clearly brought under US control, the market has begun to focus on other assets that Venezuela may hold, especially Bitcoin. Some reports suggest that Maduro’s regime might establish a “shadow reserve” through cryptocurrencies to evade long-term sanctions. However, data on this is highly divided; some reports claim Venezuela holds Bitcoin worth up to $60 billion, while on-chain analytics platforms believe it only holds about 240 BTC. Currently, none of these claims have been verified by on-chain addresses or custody information.

Analysts point out that after being excluded from the traditional financial system, it is not logically impossible for Venezuela to turn to decentralized assets like Bitcoin. The country previously launched a cryptocurrency backed by oil, Petro, which ultimately failed, reflecting its long-term exploration of alternative financial systems.

Unlike physical assets like oil, Bitcoin cannot be physically seized. Whether assets can be confiscated depends on the private keys or cooperation from US-judicially governed custodial institutions. Given the sanctions context, Venezuela’s core circles are more likely to adopt self-custody and multi-wallet dispersal methods, greatly increasing the difficulty of tracking and control. However, once the private keys fall into US hands, Bitcoin could be fully transferred and confiscated in a short period.

This discussion has gained momentum partly because Trump proposed establishing a “Bitcoin strategic reserve” that does not require taxpayer funds. The market generally focuses on the possibility that the US government might acquire Bitcoin assets through judicial confiscation or sanctions enforcement in the future. If Venezuela indeed holds a significant amount of BTC, its trajectory could not only influence geopolitics but also become an important variable in the narrative of Bitcoin as a national-level reserve.