The key time nodes of the US election, the economic policies of the two parties, and the subsequent market impact are all in one.

Starting November 5, the results of the U.S. presidential election will be announced for about a week. This article will analyze the potential impact of state election policies and candidate economic policies on the market. (Synopsis: US presidential election 4 script deduction" one situation investors are the happiest; If Trump and Jinli fight a legal battle, the market is afraid to fall... (Background added: Will BTC hit a new high after the US election?) How to maximize returns in a highly volatile market) In the coming week, there is no doubt that the global follow will focus on the US election, so it took some time to carefully comb through the next time Node and core points, and look ahead to the aftermath. In general, the results of the elections will be announced in the following week starting Tuesday, November 05, during which time the progress of the results will continue to affect asset prices. Affected by the different election policies of each state, the release of the results of the US election will last about a week When chatting with Fren around me, I found that everyone was not very clear about the time rhythm of the next week, and everyone felt that the results would be available on the evening of November 5 (Beijing time on the morning of the 6th), in fact, due to the different policies of the states in ballot processing, counting rules and mailing ballots, there are differences in the announcement of the results, so first of all, I want to talk about the time rhythm of the US presidential election. Start with the overall election cadence, which over the next period of time is as follows: 1. Election Day: Presidential election day in the United States is usually scheduled for the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Voters vote for presidential and vice presidential candidates on this day. This is an indirect election because voters are actually voting for members of their state's Electoral College. 2. Electoral College Voting: The United States adopts the Electoral College system. The number of electoral votes for each state is determined by the number of congressmen in that state (number of representatives + number of senators), for a total of 538 electoral votes. Most states use the "winner-takes-all" rule, which means winning a majority of a state's votes earns all of that state's electoral votes (with the exception of Maine and Nebraska). A presidential candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win. 3. Official Electoral College Voting: Members of the Electoral College vote on the second Monday in December to formally elect the President and Vice-President. The results of the vote are sealed and submitted to Congress for certification. 4. Congressional certification: In early January of the following year, the new Congress will meet on January 6 to formally count the results of the Electoral College votes. If there is no objection, the results of the presidential and vice presidential elections will be confirmed. 5. Inauguration of the President: The President-elect and Vice President will be sworn in on January 20 to officially become the new President and Vice President for a four-year term. So next Tuesday, November 5, US time, most swing states will start voting at 6 a.m. and continue until 7~9 p.m. After the end of the vote, the counting of votes begins, but due to the different policies of each state, the timing of the announcement of the results is different. Here is a summary of the results for some of the more critical states, which tend to publish results later: 1. California: California allows a longer mail-in ballot receiving period, and mail-in ballots count toward the total number of votes as long as they are sent on Election Day and arrive within the specified date. And because of its large population and the large number of votes allowed to be counted, it is often one of the latest states in the country to publish a full result. 2. Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania typically doesn't start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, which results in a slower counting process, especially in years with high mail-in ballots. And as a key swing state, known as a "battleground state," Pennsylvania's vote count is usually highly followed, but the counting process is completed relatively late. Therefore, the final results are announced a few days after the election day. 3. Michigan and Wisconsin: These two states also process mail-in ballots on Election Day, and as swing states, small vote-count gaps result in longer counting times to ensure accuracy, which usually takes late the next day to process. 4. Nevada: Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive a few days after Election Day, so results can be delayed for days, especially in election years and when ballots are high. 5. North Carolina: North Carolina allows mail-in ballots to be received within 9 days of Election Day, as long as the ballot is mailed before or on Election Day. This makes the state's final results often delayed. Results are usually not announced until a week later. You may find that most of them, except for California as the iron ticket warehouse of the Democratic Party, are swing states, of which Pennsylvania is a key battleground state, so in fact, the entire game around the election will reach a climax within a few days after the end of the popular election. House elections are also important because they determine the implementation of U.S. fiscal policy in the future. In addition to the presidential election, the outcome of the U.S. House of Representatives election is equally important, and we know that in the U.S. federal government, the president, the Senate, and the House of Representatives together form the core structure of the separation of powers. The president holds executive power, while the Senate and the House of Representatives (collectively, Congress) hold legislative power. These three are both independent and closely related to each other to achieve checks and balances and oversight. Among them, the House of Representatives is the lower house of the National Assembly and has the following main functions and powers: Legislation: The House of Representatives drafts and votes on bills, and performs legislative functions together with the Senate. Fiscal powers: The U.S. Constitution states that all fiscal and tax bills must first be introduced by the House of Representatives to ensure direct representation of taxpayers. Power of Impeachment: The House has the power to file impeachment and can file impeachment against the president or federal officials, but trial power goes to the Senate. Therefore, it can be said that the distribution of the House of Representatives determines the difficulty of the president in pursuing his own economic policies, and the president of his party who does not have more than half of the seats is usually called a "minority president", and the difficulty of implementing the bill is generally extremely difficult. While elections for the House of Representatives are held every two years, in an election year, voting in the House election and the presidential election is usually held on the same day, usually on the first Tuesday of November in every even-numbered year. On this day, voters vote for the president and all 435 House seats. Therefore, as a rule, the results of the two elections are announced gradually over a similar period of time, but the specific order may differ. But usually, the results are a little higher because the House constituencies are smaller and the votes are counted faster. Looking ahead to the aftermath of the election results In previous articles, we have analyzed the respective economic policies of the two parties, and here is a brief review, the Democratic Party He Jinli's side mainly uses "opportunistic economics" as its core economic layer, which is summarized by increasing government investment and raising taxes to increase the income level of middle-class families in housing, medical care, education, and daily necessities. The general expectation is that He Jinli's economic policies will further increase the government's fiscal burden and further hit the dollar credit, while the wealth effect of the big water release will help push up inflation, but because of the government's forced intervention in the price control of daily necessities, I think inflation will be in the overall trend of gradually accelerating rise. Trump's economy can basically be summarized in the following three dimensions, firstly, low tax rates at home, high tariffs abroad, secondly, through interest rate cuts and other means to drop the exchange rate of the dollar against major manufacturing countries, and finally oppose the new energy industry and advocate boosting the traditional energy industry; This policy is closely linked to the interest group behind it, the blue-collar class in the Rust Belt. Although...