TD Cowen cuts strategy target price to $350! Optimistic about "these 4" digital asset reserve companies

Investment bank TD Cowen significantly cuts the target price for Bitcoin investment giant Strategy (stock code: MSTR) from the original $440 to $350, a decline of 20.5%, but maintains a “Buy” rating. At the same time, TD Cowen also tracks four smaller cryptocurrency reserve companies for the first time, all of which are rated “Buy.” Pessimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s short-term explosive potential, Strategy’s target price slashed TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonathan Navarrete pointed out in their report that the downward revision of Strategy’s target price mainly reflects a decrease in both “Bitcoin’s expected price” and “Strategy’s valuation multiple of Bitcoin expected returns.” The analysts estimate that Strategy’s “Bitcoin gains” for the fiscal year 2026 will be about $7.87 billion, down from $10.17 billion in 2025. Nevertheless, TD Cowen remains optimistic about the company’s core business model, which is to convert market volatility into tangible Bitcoin asset accumulation through “effective leverage.” TD Cowen states that Strategy currently has net debt of $5.94 billion, yet its market capitalization reaches $41.88 billion, holding 766,970 Bitcoins with an average cost of about $75,700 per coin. Three scenario analyses: base, optimistic, pessimistic Regarding Strategy’s future outlook, the TD Cowen team simulated three market scenarios:

• Base case: Assume Bitcoin steadily rises to $140k by December this year, with the company maintaining a quarterly Bitcoin purchase capacity of about $5 billion.

• Optimistic case: If the bull market surges, Bitcoin could spike to $175k in December (a 40% increase from the previous all-time high), with the company’s quarterly buy-in exceeding $5 billion.

• Pessimistic case: If the crypto winter arrives, Bitcoin could face an 80% decline, crashing to $25k. Under such market conditions or if capital market financing channels are lost, Strategy would be forced to halt all Bitcoin purchases. The report also admits that investing in Strategy stocks still involves significant risks, including high correlation with Bitcoin prices, potential convergence of current stock premiums, regulatory variables facing companies holding cryptocurrencies, and the most critical asset custody operational risks (such as loss of cold wallet private keys). Four potential stocks: Sharplink, Strive, Nakamoto, Smarter Web In addition to updating the Strategy report, TD Cowen officially includes the so-called “emerging industry sector” for tracking. The bank believes that the operations of publicly listed Bitcoin and Ethereum reserve companies can create value for investors and their underlying digital asset ecosystems, and states that this industry “is likely to persist and attract more investor attention over time.” The four newly included companies are: Sharplink (SBET), Strive (ASST), Nakamoto Holdings (NAKA), and The Smarter Web Company (SWC.LN). Three focus on accumulating Bitcoin, while Sharplink centers on Ethereum reserve strategies. TD Cowen rates all four companies as “Buy.”

• Sharplink: Target price $16. The company is positioned as an institutional-grade Ethereum reserve platform, with a core strategy of continuously accumulating Ethereum and earning staking yields higher than spot ETFs. If Ethereum reaches $3,650 by the end of 2026, the company’s potential Ethereum gains for 2026 could reach $93 million.

• Strive: Target price $26. Assuming Bitcoin hits $140k by year-end and applying a 2x valuation multiple, the company could generate approximately $142 million in Bitcoin gains in fiscal year 2026.

• Nakamoto Holdings: Target price $1. Founded by David Bailey in May 2025, the company not only manages its own reserves but also holds minority stakes in overseas Bitcoin reserve companies and related businesses. It is estimated to generate $394 million in revenue in fiscal year 2026. Notably, to maintain Nasdaq listing eligibility, the company has recently submitted a reverse stock split proposal, planning to consolidate shares at ratios of 1-for-20 or 1-for-50.

• The Smarter Web Company: Target price £1 (about $1.34). This UK company switched to the London Stock Exchange in February and raised £225 million within six months of listing. It employs a “dual-track” approach, maintaining its web design and marketing core while continuously expanding Bitcoin reserves through capital markets. Analysts state that the “£1 target price” is based on the assumption that Bitcoin will reach £106k (about $140k) by the end of 2026, and the company will earn £52 million in Bitcoin revenue in fiscal year 2027.