Is Altcoin Season Really Coming in 2026? Comparison with Past Cycles

Hello Gate Square friends, I've been in crypto for 5 years now. I jumped into the sector right in the middle of the 2021 bull run, and since then I've both made money and gotten badly burned. 😅 I'm no longer a "newbie," but I still learn something new every day. In this post, using the current market (early February 2026) as a base, I'll explain whether altcoin season is actually here or not, while comparing it to past cycles. Maybe you can avoid some of the pits I fell into.
First, let's recall: When did altcoin season explode in 2021? When BTC dominance dropped from the ~70% range down to ~40%, money started flowing into altcoins. It happened around the ETH Merge buildup, during DeFi summer, and the NFT craze. Altseason usually arrives when BTC is consolidating or making a mild correction. BTC hits a new ATH, then goes sideways, dominance falls — boom, money flows to alts.
Now let's look at 2026. BTC ETFs came online in 2024-2025, institutional money poured in, and BTC reached 100k+ levels (maybe even higher). Right now, is dominance still high? (When I was writing this, it was floating around 55-60%, I think — you can check the current figure.) My observation: By the end of 2025, BTC stabilized, but altcoins are slowly starting to move. After ETH's spot ETF approval, the ETH/BTC ratio is rising — that's a classic sign. In my portfolio right now, I have ~40% BTC/ETH and 60% altcoins — it used to be the complete opposite.
Let me compare with past cycles:
2017-2018: ICO mania, led by ETH. But regulations hit suddenly and everything collapsed.
2021: DeFi + NFTs + meme coins. Whales entered early and pumped, retail jumped in with FOMO — classic rug pulls multiplied.
Now in 2025-2026: Much more institutional, much less hype. Restaking, AI+blockchain projects, RWAs (real world assets), etc. are the hot topics. Some of my favorites include restaking protocols similar to EigenLayer, or new DePIN projects in the Solana ecosystem. But be careful: Meme coins are still around, but they're not pumping like before — utility coins are taking the lead this cycle.
What has my strategy been over these 5 years?
Track dominance. When it drops below 50%, I start weighting more toward altcoins.
I watch whale movements (Whale Alert, Arkham Intelligence, etc.). Big transfers often signal bottoms or pumps.
DCA but smart: Not fixed USDT every month — I buy more at dips.
Risk management: Never put all my money into one coin. Max 10-15% per project.
I no longer sell emotionally. The coins I panic-sold in the 2022 bear market are now up 10x — that pain is still in my soul.
So what do I expect in 2026? I think altseason has lightly started, but the real explosion will come once BTC breaks the 120-150k range and then consolidates. If ETH reaches 8-10k, alts will go crazy. But regulatory risk is high (Trump-era policies, SEC, etc.), so I always keep some cash in stablecoins.
What do you guys think? Which altcoins are you positioned in right now? Have you noticed any dominance drop? Share in the comments, let's discuss together. Maybe we'll catch the next 10x as a group.

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