Expectations for interest rate cuts suddenly shift? Tonight's US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data may provide the answer.

Recently, there has been a dramatic change in the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to the latest data from CME FedWatch, the market's expectation probability for a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to 32.8%—it's worth noting that this figure was over 60% just a week ago. In other words, people are now more inclined to believe that there will be no rate cut in December.

Why has there been such a shift? The main reason is that Federal Reserve officials have recently been frequently "talking down" the economy. Vice Chair Jefferson stated directly that interest rate cuts should come slowly, and this collective "hawkish" attitude has calmed the market quite a bit.

All eyes are now focused on the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be released tonight at 21:30. This report has been delayed for a long time due to the government shutdown, and the market generally feels that the data may not be as bad as previously expected.

Moreover, the recently released ADP "small non-farm" data has shown that the labor market is warming up, which also supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates.

However, Goldman Sachs presented a different perspective in their latest report. They believe that given the weak state of the labor market, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March and June 2026. This judgment provides us with a longer-term observation perspective.

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve's policy direction is being repriced. The market is oscillating between short-term cautious sentiment and long-term easing expectations, and tonight's US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is likely to become a key signal for judging the timing of a policy shift, while also laying the groundwork for new market expectations ahead.