Crypto Market Weekly Report: Highlights and Shadows in the Fall

Market Overview

This week, the crypto market has shown a rapid fall trend, with the market sentiment index dropping significantly to 11%. The stablecoin market cap growth has stagnated, indicating that institutional funds are starting to withdraw. The panic in the market is mainly due to a large-scale hacking attack on a trading platform and the radical tariff policies proposed by Trump, which have intensified concerns about inflation and economic recession. Overall market sentiment has plunged into extreme panic, with most tokens underperforming the benchmark index.

Next Week's Forecast Target

Bullish Targets: LTC, S, SOSO, BERA

LTC has risen against the trend this week, mainly benefiting from the market's increased expectations for the approval of the LTC ETF. A spot LTC ETF proposed by a certain capital has already obtained listing qualifications in the custody trust and settlement company system, and the market has high expectations for its approval.

The S token has recently attracted a large number of users and funds due to its high APY from on-chain DeFi projects. The main liquidity staking projects have an APY of up to 123%, with an average lending interest rate of 10.21%, allowing users to achieve a yield of over 20%. This has driven a spiraling increase in the price of the S token.

The SOSO project team has flexibly adjusted its development direction, shifting from AI investment services to high APY wealth management services. The recently launched second season mining activity allows users to stake SSI tokens to earn up to 42% APY, attracting more users to participate.

BERA was also affected during the initial fall of the market, but the project team quickly adjusted the staking yield of the on-chain LSD project. The highest APY of the main LSD projects reached 123%, with a lending rate of 23.68%, allowing users participating in arbitrage to achieve approximately 100% risk-free annualized returns, thus reversing the downward trend.

Bearish targets: ETH, SOL, ADA, AI, TKO, RUNE

ETH is affected by a theft incident from a certain trading platform, leading to panic in the market. Although the stolen assets have been replenished, the selling pressure from the hacker still exists. Meanwhile, the Safe technology vulnerability has raised concerns about the security of the Ethereum ecosystem.

SOL is affected by the retreat of the Meme coin wave, with a significant outflow of funds on the chain. TVL has dropped from $12.1 billion to $7.3 billion, and on-chain trading volume has significantly decreased. The upcoming token unlock may bring additional selling pressure.

The TVL on the ADA chain has significantly decreased, with all ecosystem projects experiencing a fall of over 10%, indicating that users are feeling FUD towards the Cardano ecosystem. The on-chain DEX trading volume has drastically declined, and lending activities are sluggish.

The AI project Sleepless AI is experiencing a significant pullback in the AI and Gamefi sectors. Market interest in the Play to earn model of Gamefi has decreased, and the valuation of AI projects is generally high. The upcoming token unlock may trigger further falls.

As a major exchange token in Southeast Asia, TKO has been negatively affected by recent security incidents at exchanges. A large number of tokens set to be unlocked may bring selling pressure.

RUNE experienced a counter-trend rise at the beginning of the week, but subsequently fell due to developers leaving and market concerns about its alleged money laundering activities. It is expected that decreased trading volume and negative sentiment will lead to a continued fall.

Market Sentiment Index Analysis

The market sentiment index plummeted from 33% last week to 11%, nearing the extreme fear range.

Hot Tracks

Sonic

Sonic chain's TVL has maintained rapid growth recently, increasing by 10.32% this week to $683 million. Its token S rose by 7.63%, showing outstanding performance in a falling market.

Sonic is shifting to the DeFi track, adopting high APY strategies to attract users. Major on-chain projects can offer up to 123% APY, with lending rates around 10%, allowing users to obtain arbitrage returns of over 100%.

Future development must focus on the sustainability of its economic flywheel, including staking, liquidity release, DeFi empowerment, and the positive cycle of user growth. We must be wary of the risk that new users' funds may not be sufficient to cover the arbitrage selling pressure.

Berachain

Berachain's TVL rose against the trend by 4.66% this week to $3.194 billion, ranking sixth. Its token BERA increased by 7.26%.

The main LSD projects on the chain have an APY of up to 121%-190%, and a lending rate of 23.68%, attracting a large number of users to participate in arbitrage.

Future development faces challenges similar to Sonic, requiring attention to the emergence of new star projects and changes in the interest rates of LSD projects. High interest rate models may pose a risk of long-term selling pressure.

Overall Overview of Market Themes

This week, the Sociafi sector performed the best, while the PayFi sector performed the worst. In Sociafi, TON and CHZ had relatively small falls, while in PayFi, XRP and XLM had larger falls.

Next Week's Major Events in the Crypto Market

• March 3: US February ISM Manufacturing PMI
• March 5: U.S. February ADP employment numbers; Pectra network upgrade launched on Ethereum testnet
• March 7: U.S. February non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate

Summary

This week the crypto market experienced a significant fall, and market sentiment is sluggish. Some projects are attracting users through high APY strategies, but long-term stability is questionable. Investors should closely monitor market dynamics and operate cautiously.