Crypto Assets Market Weekly Review

This week, the Crypto Assets market is showing overall fluctuations. Bitcoin failed to follow the rise of US stocks and other risk assets, instead experiencing a downward trend. The main reason is the decline that occurred when market liquidity was weak last weekend, as well as the movement of Bitcoin from a well-known trading platform's address this week, which sparked speculation in the market about a possible final payout, leading to the market downturn.

Ethereum also followed the market decline this week, but the drop was relatively smaller than that of Bitcoin. From the perspective of spot ETFs, funds are still continuously flowing out, reflecting that most investors currently have low interest in investing in Ethereum.

Important Event Review

1. Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for September

The market has fully digested the expectation of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September, and the current focus of discussion is whether the cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Based on the economic data released this week, the market tends to believe that the probability of a 25 basis point cut is greater, which is seen as a conservative defensive cut.

2. U.S. Economic Data

Several economic data released this week from the United States performed better than expected, including inflation expectations, CPI data, and the number of initial unemployment claims. These figures indicate that the U.S. economy still has a certain level of resilience and is not as weak as the market previously anticipated, thus reducing market expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

3. Geopolitical Situation

The situation in the Middle East has once again become tense this week. The Revolutionary Guard of a certain country attacked three U.S. military bases in Lebanon, and the United States subsequently deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups and a nuclear submarine to the Middle East. Meanwhile, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russia's Kursk region and launched an assault on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, raising the risk of a nuclear leak and exacerbating the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

4. Well-known trading platform address Bitcoin move

This Wednesday, a well-known exchange platform's address saw a movement of approximately $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. The market generally believes this could be a test action in preparation for the platform's final payout, with expectations that the platform may soon pay out the remaining over 40,000 Bitcoins in the address. This news triggered a market downturn, but from another perspective, it also signifies the potential end of a decade-long risk.

Overview of the Altcoin Market

Overall Performance

This week's market sentiment index has risen to 13%, an improvement from last week's 9.2%, but it remains in the fear zone. The sentiment towards altcoins has warmed mainly due to their performance this week being stronger than that of Bitcoin and Ethereum, which can be seen as a supplementary rebound from last week's surge. However, as the Crypto Assets market has diverged from other risk assets like U.S. stocks, coupled with a lack of market hotspots and some external macro factors leading to intense long-short battles, the capital entering altcoins is relatively limited, making it difficult for this week's supplementary rebound to sustain.

Analysis of the Rise Ranking

The top five tokens with the highest price increase this week come from different sectors, including L1, NFT, ETH-L2, DEX, and cross-chain, showing no significant characteristics of sector concentration. However, the rebound this week is generally greater than last week, indicating that multiple projects have begun a compensatory rally.

In terms of Meme coins, although the overall rebound strength exceeded last week, the proportion of Meme coins among the top 50 tokens ranked by increase has decreased compared to before, indicating that the rebound strength of the Meme coin sector this week is generally less than that of other sectors.

Social Media Hotspots

According to social media data, the most关注度 this week is the L1 track. Most of the关注的 L1 projects performed better than Bitcoin and Ethereum this week, but there were no special events in the market, which may be a补涨 for L1 due to the insufficient rebound last week.

Topic Tracking

According to the weekly return rate statistics, the SocialFi sector performed the best, while the AI sector performed the worst.

The main force in the SocialFi track, TON, has seen a strong rise this week, driving the outstanding performance of the entire track. This is mainly attributed to a trading platform launching a mining project for TON.

Most tokens in the AI sector performed poorly this week, reflecting that market attention and funds have not concentrated on this sector. Although the AI sector has been declining continuously for the past few months, it has still maintained positive returns year-to-date.

Important Events Forecast for Next Week

• August 20: OORT Summit; a trading platform suspends services for users in Washington state.
• August 21: Devcom & Gamescon
• August 22: Release of initial jobless claims in the US; Coinfest Asia 2024; A company's bankruptcy case concludes, starting preliminary claims for encryption losses.

Market Outlook for Next Week

1. Bitcoin: As more macro data is released, expectations of a U.S. economic recession have eased. The market is beginning to anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, negating previous speculation about an early rate cut. Given the global geopolitical instability and the divergence in expectations regarding future rate cuts, Bitcoin is expected to continue to experience wide fluctuations before the Federal Reserve's rate cut.

2. Ethereum: This week, Ethereum spot ETF funds continued to flow out, indicating that the current price is not very attractive to investors. It is expected that Ethereum will struggle to develop an independent market in the short term and may remain highly correlated with Bitcoin, experiencing wide fluctuations.

3. Altcoins: Although altcoins performed strongly this week and completed the rebound from last week, the overall limited capital inflow into the crypto market recently means that altcoins lack the momentum for a sustained rise. It is expected that next week may see the end of this round of rebound and return to a trend of oscillation in sync with the broader market.