The macro environment is warming up, and the crypto market is迎来Rebound opportunities.

Recently, global geopolitical risks have eased, and expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have risen, driving the Nasdaq index to new highs. These positive factors have injected new momentum into the crypto market.

In terms of funding, the crypto market ETF had a net inflow of $1.7 billion this week, with the issuance of stablecoins accelerating and market liquidity significantly improving. Major cryptocurrencies performed strongly, with Bitcoin maintaining a strong oscillation at high levels and Ethereum also showing a rebound. Meanwhile, some crypto-related stocks performed actively.

However, the rebound momentum of small-cap tokens remains limited. After being hindered, the TOTAL2 index has retraced, and the market capitalization share of small-cap tokens is still in a volatile phase, with on-chain activity indicators reporting 53, which has not yet emerged from the weak range.

The market is currently at the end of a consolidation phase, and it is necessary to observe the capital breakout situation in the short term. Investors should patiently wait for signals of structural strengthening in small-cap tokens, as well as signs of capital inflow into mainstream coins.

Macroeconomic and Market Environment Outlook

In the second half of 2025, the U.S. economy is expected to transition from moderate growth to a slowdown. Weak retail sales and employment data suggest that consumption and investment momentum may weaken. Inflation may rise slightly due to tariffs and oil prices, but is expected to remain within a controllable range. The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has decreased, with a more pronounced trend of targeted increases and exemptions.

Capital Flow Analysis and Mainstream Crypto Market Structure

In terms of external capital flow, this week ETF inflows reached $1.7 billion, with a significant increase in inflow volume. Stablecoins saw an issuance increase of $1.8 billion this week, averaging $263 million per day, which is at a high level. The OTC premium continues to rise, reflecting a warming market sentiment.

In terms of Bitcoin, the price is strongly fluctuating around $106,000. The on-chain chip distribution has not changed much compared to last week, with strong short-term support forming around $103,000.

In terms of Ethereum, its comparison to Bitcoin remains fluctuating, indicating that funds are currently more inclined to flow back to Bitcoin. On-chain data shows an increase in the number of active addresses, reflecting an improvement in market sentiment.

Overall, the current market is at the end stage of consolidation. In the short term, it's important to closely monitor the capital breakthrough coordination, patiently waiting for signals of structural strength in small-cap tokens, as well as signs of capital inflow into mainstream encryption currencies.