The crypto market welcomes a turning point in policy and funding, and ETH begins a new chapter of institutional layout.

Preface

Recently, the crypto market has welcomed two important catalysts: the legislative process of Washington's "Cryptocurrency Week" and the intensive outbreak of institutional layout in Ethereum, which together form the "policy inflection point" and "capital inflection point" for the crypto industry in the second half of 2025. The deep logic of this round of crypto cycle is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum, stablecoins, and on-chain financial infrastructure. The clarity of U.S. policies and the institutional expansion of Ethereum signify that the crypto industry is entering a structurally positive phase, and the market allocation focus should gradually transition from "price speculation" to "capture of institutional dividends from rules + infrastructure."

U.S. "Crypto Week": Three Major Bills Signal Compliance Assets Will Undergo Value Reassessment

In July 2025, the United States Congress will systematically advance comprehensive governance of encryption assets for the first time through a legislative agenda. Against the backdrop of changes in the global digital finance landscape and challenges to traditional regulatory models, these bills not only respond to market risks but also demonstrate that the United States is attempting to take a dominant position in the next round of competition for financial infrastructure.

The "GENIUS Act" establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, covering key elements such as custody requirements, audit disclosures, asset reserves, and settlement processes. This means that the stablecoin system, which has long operated outside of traditional financial regulation, will be incorporated into the U.S. sovereign legal structure for the first time.

The "CLARITY Act" focuses on the classification of the securities and commodity attributes of encryption assets, aiming to clarify "which encryption assets are considered securities and which are not," and to delineate the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. If this act is passed smoothly, it will put an end to the long-standing unresolved status of the "regulatory gray area" surrounding encryption assets.

The "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act" prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currency, preventing the government from establishing real-time surveillance capabilities over individual financial activities through the digital dollar framework. This reflects the U.S. Congress's emphasis on financial privacy and market freedom.

Overall, these three major bills point to "regulatory-driven innovation" and emphasize "clear boundaries and reduced uncertainty." Once the legislation is implemented, it is expected to bring about the following results: gradual removal of barriers for institutional investors; policy confirmation of stablecoins as "on-chain dollars"; compliance exchanges and custodian banks receiving policy endorsement, reshaping the trust structure of the global crypto market.

This series of legislations is a strategic response from the United States to a new round of reshaping the financial order. Stablecoins are becoming a vehicle for the digital expansion of the dollar's influence, and the U.S. Congress is attempting to inject institutional legitimacy into them through regulation. This is a layout game of financial geopolitical power and a direct response to China's central bank digital currency and the EU's MiCA regulatory framework.

"Crypto Week" is not only a moment for the market to reassess the valuation logic of crypto assets, but also a formal confirmation of the technological trends by policies. This institutional pricing signal will inject more stable expectations into the market and provide investors with a path to identify "regulatable and sustainable" assets. Compliant assets, especially stablecoins, ETH, and their surrounding infrastructure, will become the core beneficiaries of the next round of structural re-evaluation.

ETH Institutional Arms Race: ETF Entry, Staking Mechanism Transformation, and Asset Structure Upgrade Advancing on Three Fronts

Recently, with the rebound in ETH prices and the restoration of market confidence, a new round of "capital arms race" surrounding Ethereum has quietly begun. From Wall Street financial giants increasing their positions through ETF channels to publicly listed companies incorporating ETH into their balance sheets, Ethereum is undergoing a restructuring of market dynamics. This not only signifies that traditional capital's recognition of ETH has entered a new phase, but also marks Ethereum's evolution from a highly volatile, high-tech barrier decentralized asset to a mainstream financial asset with institutional-grade allocation logic.

Since the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF in July 2024, it has attracted a net inflow of $5.76 billion, accounting for nearly 4% of its market capitalization. Although the price has experienced some pullbacks, the inflow of funds has remained stable, indicating recognition of the long-term institutional investment value in ETH. Over the past two months, several Ethereum ETF products have recorded monthly net inflows exceeding $1 billion, with traditional financial players such as Bitwise, ARK, and BlackRock significantly increasing their holdings.

At the same time, the wave of public companies "strategically reserving Ethereum" has emerged. Companies such as SharpLink Gaming, Siebert Financial, Bit Digital, and BitMine have gradually incorporated ETH into their balance sheets, marking a narrative turning point where ETH has transformed from a "speculative asset" to a "strategic reserve asset." It is worth noting that SharpLink currently holds more than 280,000 ETH, surpassing the Ethereum Foundation's 242,500 ETH, making it the largest single institutional holder of ETH in the world.

The current institutional participation structure can be divided into two camps: the "Ethereum native camp" represented by SharpLink, which gathers early Ethereum ecosystem participants; and the "Wall Street approach" represented by BitMine, which directly replicates the Bitcoin reserve logic. This north-south pincer-style institutional accumulation model shifts the value anchor and price support system of ETH towards a more institutionalized, long-term, and structured mainstream capital framework.

This trend not only affects prices but may also reshape the governance, discourse, and ecological dominance of the Ethereum network. In the future, if companies with substantial ETH holdings continue to expand their positions, their potential influence on the development direction of Ethereum will be significant. Although these companies currently hold ETH mainly for speculative hedging and capital operation considerations, their entry has already created a magnifying effect in the capital market: ETH has been revalued, and the market narrative has shifted from the crowded tracks of DeFi and L2 to a new space of "reserve assets + ETFs + governance."

It is worth noting that Ethereum currently lacks a "spiritual leader" like Michael Saylor for Bitcoin. The absence of such endorsements has, to some extent, slowed down the trust conversion path of Ethereum in the minds of institutional investors.

However, Ethereum is not lacking in response at the institutional level. Vitalik Buterin and the Ethereum Foundation have recently been vocal, emphasizing technological resilience, security mechanisms, and decentralization principles, while reinforcing the "dual-track" structure of ecological governance mechanisms, intending to embrace institutional capital while avoiding governance power being controlled by a single force.

In summary, ETH is undergoing a comprehensive change in its capital structure: transitioning from an open market dominated by retail investors to a institutionalized market structure driven by ETFs, listed companies, and institutional nodes. This shift will impact the future construction path of ETH's price center and may reshape the governance structure and development pace of the Ethereum ecosystem. In this arms race, ETH is no longer just a representative of the tech stack, but is becoming a key asset in the wave of digital capitalism, serving as both a value-bearing tool and a focal point of power struggle.

Market Strategy: BTC builds a high-level platform, ETH and mid-to-high quality application chains welcome a rebound logic

As Bitcoin breaks through the $120,000 mark and enters a platform phase, the structural rotation pattern of the crypto market becomes increasingly clear. Under the dominant logic of BTC, Ethereum and high-quality application chain assets are beginning to welcome a valuation repair period. The current market shows a structure of "large-cap platform fluctuations + mid-cap rotational attacks", with ETH and a batch of L1/L2 protocols that have both narrative and technical support becoming the most valuable direction for speculation after Bitcoin.

1. BTC has entered the high-level platform building phase: there is support downward and weakness upward. Bitcoin has basically completed the main upward trend driven by the triple narrative of spot ETFs, halving cycles, and institutional reserves. It is currently in a consolidation phase; although it is still in a technical upward channel, the short-term upward momentum has weakened. On-chain data shows a decline in active addresses and trading volume, and implied volatility of options is decreasing, indicating that market expectations for a short-term breakout are declining.

2. The logic of ETH's supplementary rise is formed: from "lost leader" to "value gap" and then revaluation. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's performance in the second half of 2024 was once seen as "disappointing," with a significant price correction, and its price ratio to BTC fell to a three-year low. However, during the downturn, ETH gradually completed its valuation repricing and position structure optimization. Currently, institutional capital's recognition of ETH is rapidly increasing, with continuous net inflows into spot ETFs, and the trend of publicly listed companies reserving ETH is taking shape. On the technical side, ETH's price has broken through the previous downward trend line and is beginning to establish an upward channel, continuously recovering key technical moving average positions.

3. The Rise of Mid-to-High Quality Application Chains: Chains like Solana, TON, and Tanssi are ushering in structural opportunities. The market is accelerating its shift towards mid-to-high quality application chain assets that have "real narrative support." Chains such as Solana, TON, Tanssi, and Sui have garnered rapid capital concentration due to their multiple advantages of "high performance + strong ecosystem + clear positioning." In addition, middleware protocols (like EigenLayer and Celestia) and L2 Rollup solutions (such as Base and ZkSync) are gradually releasing value, becoming important "valuation hubs" between public chains and application layers.

4. Market Strategy Outlook: Focus on "Value Rotation" and "Narrative Advancement"

• BTC allocation to keep a reserve, not a main focus: core positions remain unchanged, but it is not advisable to continue chasing highs, pay attention to potential policy or macro disturbance risks.
• ETH as the core asset for rotation: technical repair + strengthened institutional narrative, suitable for medium-term allocation. If ETF funds accelerate inflows, there may be further upside potential.
• High to mid-quality public chains and modular protocols focus on chains with technological innovation, strong ecological foundations, and capital supporters (such as SOL, TON, Tanssi, Base, Celestia) that have the potential for sustained growth.
• Narrative shift forward, actively seeking new opportunities on the edge: focus on early layout targets in DePIN, RWA, AI chain, and ZK directions. These narratives are in the funding pre-positioning stage and may become the core of the next rotation.

The current market has transitioned from a single asset-driven phase into a structural rotation phase. The main upward trend of BTC has temporarily paused, and the rotation between ETH and high-quality new public chains will become the key driving force for the second half of the market. Strategically, one should abandon the habitual thinking of "chasing high leaders" and shift towards a mid-term trend layout of "valuation rebalancing + narrative diffusion."

Conclusion: Clear regulation + ETH main rise, the market enters a systematic cycle

With the advancement of three key bills during the United States "Crypto Week", the industry is entering an unprecedented period of policy clarity. This clear regulatory environment not only eliminates years of unresolved compliance uncertainties but also lays the foundation for the institutional and formal development of the crypto asset market. As the arms race for strategic reserves of core assets like ETH accelerates, the market is gradually entering a new cycle dominated by institutional frameworks.

Under the catalysis of the institutional environment, Ethereum, as a leader in the smart contract platform, is迎来主升浪的关键窗口. Ethereum not only has a clear technical roadmap and active ecological innovation, but its network security and decentralized governance structure are continuously optimized, making it one of the preferred digital assets for institutions. The combination of strategic reserve trends and ETF funds marks the beginning of Ethereum's value being reassessed by the capital market.

The synergistic effect of clear regulation and the resurgence of mainstream asset values is gradually helping the crypto market break free from the previous "bull-bear cycle trap" and evolve towards a more stable and sustainable institutional cycle. A significant characteristic of the institutional cycle is that market fluctuations are more guided by fundamentals and policy expectations, with asset price volatility no longer dominated by scattered emotions and regulatory news, but rather reflecting a positive interaction between capital and technology, as well as steady growth.

The opening of the institutional cycle also signifies the diversification of market structures and the multi-dimensional upgrading of the ecosystem. The technological innovations and governance reforms within the Ethereum ecosystem will continuously promote the diversification of on-chain applications and enhance network utility, while clearer regulations will accelerate the compliant development of more quality projects, giving rise to on-chain gold.