The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, the market is following the key levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Market Observation

Recently, the market has been focusing on the Fed's interest rate policy. Although inflation data shows signs of cooling, several Fed officials, including the chair, have stated that more time is needed to observe and confirm that rising prices do not evolve into persistent inflation, thus adopting a cautious attitude towards a rate cut in July. Officials generally believe that the current monetary policy is in an appropriate position and are inclined to consider a rate cut later this year. The three major US stock indices collectively rose on Thursday, with technology stocks and bank stocks leading the gains. At the same time, US Treasury yields fell across the board, and the dollar index continued to decline to a three-year low.

In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government has released a new policy declaration for the development of digital assets, clearly stating that a licensing system for stablecoins will be implemented by 2025, promoting asset tokenization, and providing tax incentives for related ETFs and funds. Through regulatory frameworks, asset transparency, and tax competitiveness, Hong Kong is becoming a new hub for the global digital economy.

The price of Bitcoin has recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the upward momentum has slowed. Today marks the largest expiry date for Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year, which could exacerbate short-term volatility. Multiple analysts have stated that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and convert it into support in order to enter a new price discovery phase. Currently, the MVRV ratio is 2.22, below the historically high valuation range, indicating there is still room for growth.

For Ethereum, analysts point out that $2200 is a macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to trigger a stronger rebound. In addition, on-chain market activity has cooled, and recently, relevant U.S. departments have allowed the acceptance of cryptocurrencies as collateral loan assets, promoting the emergence of a "home buying narrative" on-chain.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $107,432, year-to-date +14.64%
• Ethereum: $2,439.40, Year-to-date -26.91%
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 65.1%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9826
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,720 people were liquidated globally, with a total amount of 20.1 million USD.

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$228 million (net inflow for 13 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: -26.4579 million USD

Market Outlook

• A trading platform will delist multiple perpetual contracts.
• A certain platform will launch Moonveil(MORE)
• Pipe Network will launch the PIPE token sale.
• Multiple projects will undergo token unlocks.

Hot News

• Grayscale updates Q3 Top 20 asset list
• Galaxy and Manifold deposited 30 million USDC into HyperLiquid.
• A certain whale deposited 1613 Bitcoins into the trading platform.
• Aqua 1 announces a strategic investment of 100 million USD in WLFI governance tokens.
• Huaxing Capital announces a $100 million venture into the Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency space.
• A certain exchange platform will delist multiple tokens
• GameStop raises another $450 million, which may be used to acquire BTC.
• The Solana re-staking protocol Fragmetric has launched the FRAG token.
• zkLend announces project closure, remaining funds will be used for user compensation.