Bitcoin breaks $110,000 to set a new high: Is it still time to get on board?

The price of Bitcoin recently broke through the $110,000 mark, sparking renewed discussions in the market. For those investors who missed the previous get on board opportunities, is it too late now? This article will explore the asymmetric opportunities in Bitcoin investment from the perspective of value investing.

1. Bitcoin's Asymmetric Opportunity

The history of Bitcoin is filled with extreme volatility, and each deep pullback hides significant asymmetrical investment opportunities.

• 2011: fell from $33 to $2, a decrease of 94%
• From $1160 in 2013-2015 to $150, a decline of 86%
• 2017-2018: Fell from nearly $20,000 to $3,200, a decrease of 83%
• 2021-2022: fell from $69,000 to $15,500, a drop of 77%

Behind these extreme pullbacks, three core mechanisms are at work:

1. Deep cycles + extreme emotions lead to price deviations
2. Price fluctuations are extreme, but the probability of death is very low
3. Intrinsic value exists but is overlooked, leading to "overselling"

The underlying system of Bitcoin has been running stably for over a decade, with almost no downtime. This technological resilience provides a strong survival baseline, making the probability of Bitcoin "going to zero" extremely low.

2. The Value Investment Logic of Bitcoin

Although Bitcoin does not have the financial indicators of traditional assets, it possesses an analyzable, modelable, and quantifiable value system:

2.1 Supply Side: Scarcity and Programmatic Deflation

• Fixed total supply: 21 million coins
• Halved every four years, the inflation rate continues to decline
• Stock-Flow Ratio ( S2F ) Model: Measure Scarcity

2.2 Demand Side: Network Effects and Metcalfe's Law

• Active address count
• Non-zero balance address count
• Lightning Network Capacity

By combining both supply and demand sides, we can construct a robust valuation framework: when the S2F signal indicates long-term scarcity and user activity continues to trend upward, the mismatch between demand and supply amplifies the asymmetry.

3. The Essence of Value Investing

The core of value investing is not just about "buying cheap", but rather finding an asymmetrical structure where the gap between price and value presents limited risk but significant potential returns.

It emphasizes not only cognitive ability but also emotional discipline, risk awareness, and belief in time. True value investors do not shout in a bull market but quietly lay out their plans in the calm beneath the storm.

4. Conclusion

The core logic of Bitcoin investment:

• Scarcity is the bottom line
• The network is the ceiling
• Volatility is opportunity
• Time is leverage

Although it is impossible to perfectly time the bottom, one can buy misunderstood value at a reasonable price. Those who bet in the depths of irrationality are often the most rational. And time is the most loyal executor of asymmetry.