Crypto Market Q3 Macro Report: Selective Bull Run Under Institutional Leadership

1. The macro turning point has arrived: a resonance of warming policies and institutional promotion

At the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, significant changes occurred in the macro environment. The policy environment that once pushed digital assets to the fringes is transforming into an institutional driving force. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve ending interest rate hikes, fiscal policy returning to stimulus, and the acceleration of the global crypto regulation "accommodative framework" construction, the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

First of all, the macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning window. The market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within 2025, with expectations diverging from the dot plot. Political pressure may push U.S. real interest rates down from high levels, opening up upside potential for the valuation of digital assets.

At the same time, the fiscal expansion represented by the "Great American Plan" is releasing capital effects. Investment spanning traditional industries and emerging technologies is reshaping the structure of the dollar's internal circulation, indirectly strengthening the demand for digital assets. The U.S. Treasury's bond issuance strategy is becoming more aggressive, and "printing money for growth" has once again become a consensus.

The changes in the regulatory structure are more fundamentally significant. The SEC's attitude towards the crypto market has undergone a qualitative change, and the approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first recognition by regulators of income-generating digital assets entering the traditional financial system. The SEC is working on establishing unified standards to simplify the approval of token ETFs, intending to create a replicable channel for compliant financial products. This is an essential shift in regulatory logic from a "firewall" to a "pipeline".

The regulatory competition in the Asia region is heating up, and the trend of integration between sovereign capital and internet giants has begun. Stablecoins are no longer just trading tools but have become part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

In addition, the risk appetite in traditional financial markets is recovering, the IPO market is warming up, and the activity level of retail platforms is increasing, signaling a return of funds. Capital is no longer focused solely on AI and biotechnology, but is beginning to reassess blockchain, encryption finance, and on-chain structural yield assets.

Under the dual drive of policy and market, the brewing of a new bull run is not driven by emotions, but rather a value reassessment process under institutional drive. The spring of the crypto market is returning in a milder but more powerful way.

2. Structural Turnover: Enterprises and Institutions Lead the Next Bull Run

The most noteworthy aspect of the current crypto market is the deep logic of the chips shifting from retail investors to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of cleaning up and restructuring, users centered around speculation are gradually becoming marginalized, while institutions and enterprises aiming for allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The circulating chips of Bitcoin are accelerating the "locking up" process. Recently, listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin than the net purchases of ETFs. Enterprises view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash alternative," with stronger holding resilience.

Financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflows. The approval of the ETH staking ETF means that institutions are beginning to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional investment portfolios. The Solana ETF is expected to further expand the imagination space. Grayscale's large crypto fund has applied to convert into an ETF form, breaking down the barriers between traditional fund management and blockchain asset management.

Companies directly participate in the on-chain financial market, breaking the isolation between off-market investments and the on-chain world. This is no longer about venture capital investing in startup projects, but rather a capital injection characterized by industrial mergers and acquisitions and strategic layout, aimed at securing rights to core assets and profit distribution of the new financial infrastructure.

Traditional finance is actively laying out in the derivatives and on-chain liquidity space. The Solana futures open interest on CME has reached a new high, and XRP futures trading volume has broken records, indicating that traditional institutions have incorporated crypto assets into their strategic models. The entry of new players such as hedge funds and structured product providers will enhance market liquidity density and depth.

Retail investor activity has declined, reinforcing the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decrease, and the activity of early large holders has diminished, indicating that the market is in a "hand-off sedimentation period." The chips are no longer in the hands of retail investors, and institutions are quietly "building their positions."

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is rapidly being implemented. Traditional and emerging financial platforms are expanding their capabilities in crypto asset trading, staking, lending, and payment. This not only enhances the usability of crypto assets within the fiat currency system but also enriches their financial attributes. In the future, BTC and ETH may become "configurable asset classes" with a complete financial ecosystem.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep unfolding of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets, representing a complete reshaping of the value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market have shifted to institutions and enterprises that possess medium to long-term strategic planning, clear allocation logic, and stable funding structures. A systematic and structured bull run is quietly brewing, and it will be more solid, lasting, and thorough.

3. The New Era of Shanzhai Season: From General Surge to "Selective Bull Market"

The "altcoin season" of 2025 has entered a new phase: the broad market uptrend is no longer present; instead, it is replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after a rational return.

The structural signals indicate that mainstream altcoin assets have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair is showing a strong rebound, with large holders frequently accumulating, suggesting that the main funds are re-pricing mainstream assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, creating a "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity. The market often presents a situation that "seems to rise but doesn't, seems stable but isn't," which often nurtures the largest trend opportunities.

This time, the altcoin market will be "each flying on its own." ETF applications have become a new thematic structural anchor point. In particular, the Solana spot ETF is seen as a "market consensus event." Investors are laying out around staked assets, and governance token prices are showing an independent market trend. Asset performance will revolve around "ETF potential, real yield distribution, and institutional allocation attractiveness," with the strong becoming stronger and the weak being eliminated.

DeFi has also entered a new stage. Users are shifting from "points airdrop type" to "cash flow type" DeFi, with protocol revenue, stablecoin yields, and re-staking mechanisms becoming core indicators. Liquidity providers place greater importance on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and risk structure. This has led to the emergence of a batch of innovative projects that attract continuous capital inflow through structured product design.

Capital choices are becoming more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets ( RWA ) are favored by institutions. Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification have become key factors in determining the direction of funds. Infrastructure and composable protocols built around mainstream public chains have become the new valuation core.

The speculative part is also shifting. While meme coins still have popularity, the "everyone pull-up" has become a thing of the past. The "platform rotation trading" strategy has emerged, but the risks are extremely high and not sustainable. Mainstream funds are more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide continuous returns, have real users, and strong narrative support.

In summary, the core of this round of altcoin season lies in "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic". From changes in ETF structures, re-staking models, cross-chain simplifications, to the integration of RWA and institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is ushering in a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a sign of a weakening bull market, but rather an upgrade. The future belongs to those who can read the narrative logic in advance, understand the financial structure, and are willing to quietly build positions in a "quiet market".

IV. Q3 Investment Framework: From Core Allocation to Event-Driven

Investment strategies for Q3 2025 need to find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven localized bursts." From long-term allocation in BTC, to SOL ETF themed trading, and then to DeFi real yield protocols and RWA treasury rotation, a clearly defined asset allocation framework needs to be constructed.

Bitcoin remains the top choice for core positions. In an environment where ETF inflows continue, corporate treasury accumulations increase, and the Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, BTC demonstrates strong resilience and a capital siphoning effect. Even without reaching new highs, its chip structure and capital attributes still make it the most stable bottom asset.

Solana is the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. Multiple leading institutions have submitted SOL spot ETF applications, with the approval window expected to close around September. The staking mechanism is expected to be incorporated into the ETF structure, and its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute attracts funds for pre-emptive layout. This narrative will drive SOL spot and staking ecological governance tokens. The current price has strong cost-effectiveness and Beta elasticity, which may become an option for "catching up" or even "leading the rise."

DeFi portfolios are worth reconstructing. Focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution, and mature governance mechanisms. Configurable projects such as SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, FLUID, etc., adopt equal-weight configurations to capture relative returns. These types of protocols often have "slow capital return and delayed outbreaks" and should be treated with a medium-term configuration mindset.

Meme assets should have their exposure strictly controlled, limited to 5% of total assets, and positions should be managed with an options mindset. Given the risks of high-frequency capital manipulation, clear stop-loss mechanisms, profit-taking rules, and position limits should be established. The contract targets launched by mainstream exchanges should adopt a "quick in and out" strategy framework. Meme assets can serve as a sentiment replenishment tool, but should not be misjudged as the core of the trend.

The key in Q3 is to grasp the timing of event-driven layout. The market is transitioning from an "information vacuum" to "event-intensive release." Accelerated policy games, changes in the regulatory environment, and ETF reviews will trigger a "policy + capital resonance" trend. Layout should be preemptively anticipated and gradually built up to avoid chasing high traps.

Need to pay attention to the structural alternative theme's volume momentum. For example, the Robinhood L2 project may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chain" and RWA integration; marginal projects like Humanity Protocol and SAHARA may become new "explosive points". These early opportunities can serve as part of a high volatility strategy, but it is essential to control positions and adhere to risk management.

In conclusion, the investment strategy for Q3 needs to abandon the "flooding the market" betting mentality and shift towards a mixed strategy of "anchoring on the core and using events as wings". BTC serves as the anchor, SOL as the flag, DeFi as the structure, Meme as the supplement, and events as the accelerator, with each part corresponding to different position weights and trading rhythms. In the new environment of expanding ETF capital base, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns", and the key to investment success lies in understanding the capital logic behind the changing situation.

V. Conclusion: The next round of wealth migration is already on the way.

Each round of bull and bear markets is essentially a periodic reshuffle of value reassessment, and the true transfer of wealth often quietly occurs amidst chaos. Currently, a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real returns is brewing. The prologue has been written, just waiting for a few discerning individuals to enter the market.

The role of Bitcoin has undergone a fundamental change, gradually becoming a new reserve component on global corporate balance sheets and a national-level inflation hedging tool. The inflow of ETFs has changed the chip structure, building an underlying capital reservoir. In the future, the biggest influences on BTC prices will be institutional buying records, pension allocation decisions, and the macro policy re-evaluation of risk assets.

The infrastructure and assets representing the next generation of financial paradigms are evolving from "narrative bubbles" to "system takeover." Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, and re-staked bonds, which represent crypto assets, are transitioning from "anarchic capital experiments" to "predictable institutional assets." This is a pricing revolution that crosses asset boundaries, and the future belongs to on-chain collaboration and digital property rights.

A new round of altcoin season will be more deeply tied to real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Protocols that can provide stable return expectations for institutions, assets that attract stable capital through ETF channels, and DeFi projects with RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" of the new cycle. This is an "elite" altcoin season, a selective bull run that eliminates 99% of pseudo-assets.

For ordinary investors, the current market appearance is still a stagnant pool, but it is precisely the golden period for large funds to quietly complete their positions. The key lies in whether one is standing on the correct structure. Position structure reconstruction rather than