Market Outlook Analysis: Opportunities and Challenges in the Coming Month

In the coming weeks, the cryptocurrency market may experience a period of volatility, and investors need to be prepared. Spot positions may face significant drawdowns, but if one can hold through this period, certain key coins may perform well in the next round of increases.

In the next 4-8 weeks, the market may see new upward opportunities. This expectation is based on several factors, including Bitcoin's dominance being at a high level, seasonal factors, the potential rise in the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio, and market capital rotation. Additionally, the policy environment and macroeconomic conditions are relatively favorable, creating good conditions for the market.

In the next wave of price increases, investors should consider gradually becoming sellers. If they choose to continue holding during the trough, they should formulate a plan to gradually shift to safer assets. Safer assets include Bitcoin and stablecoins. As the market cycle progresses, it is advisable to gradually reduce risk, scale down position sizes, and exit the market using a dollar-cost averaging approach rather than liquidating all at once.

Regarding the upcoming market rotation, it is currently difficult to make a clear prediction. From now on, the market may be more suitable for traders rather than long-term holders. Certain coins may attract a large amount of buying, while others may rise slowly. It is hard to determine in advance which coins or sectors will become market leaders.

Investors should not cling to certain cryptocurrencies to achieve unrealistic target prices. Many cryptocurrencies may never reach their historical highs again. While some mainstream coins may do so, most coins are unlikely to achieve this. It is recommended to follow market trends and take profits in a timely manner.

If the portfolio is highly diversified, it is recommended to consider selling 50-75% of the holdings during the next wave of increases, once the rotation ends. For example, when the artificial intelligence sector rises, one might consider selling related cryptocurrencies; or when tokenized physical assets experience a good increase, it is advisable to take profits in a timely manner.

In the next period of time, efforts should be made to consolidate investments, reduce the number of new positions opened, and lower the overall variety of holdings. Regarding the timing of the next significant correction, it is expected that it may take another 3-6 months, at which point the market could become very bad.

The market may enter what is known as a "super cycle", but caution is still needed regarding this. Investors should set reasonable drawdown targets, such as keeping their portfolio drawdown from historical highs to a maximum of around 30-40%.

It is important to continuously analyze data and constantly reassess the peak and end points of market cycles. When the market starts to turn, things can get complicated. Even when a bull market ends, there will be those who remain optimistic about the market. Staying vigilant and adjusting strategies based on the actual situation is crucial.

Finally, investors should conduct independent research and not blindly follow the opinions of others. Everyone's trading strategies are different, so do not rely entirely on others' exit strategies. If you can exit the market with a considerable profit, you are already a successful investor.