## Expectation for alt season

Cryptocurrency analyst Arthur Hayes announced on the 11th that he has turned bullish on the market following Bitcoin's new all-time high. Shifting from his previous cautious analysis, he now predicts the arrival of an Ethereum-led alt season.

Mr. Hayes pointed out that "Bitcoin has broken its all-time high with sufficient volume," predicting that Ethereum will follow suit and outperform. He expressed, "Prepare for a monster alt season," showing expectations for the arrival of a significant bull market.

The background of this shift in perspective lies in the market's optimistic view of President Trump's tariff policy. Mr. Hayes analyzed that the market perceives Trump's tariff policy as "TACO (always backing down out of fear)" and indicated that the hardline stance is expected to soften.

In the analysis on the 3rd, we pointed out the possibility of Bitcoin dropping to $90,000 to $95,000 due to concerns over liquidity contraction from the replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA). It was expected that a liquidity contraction of $486 billion would occur due to the increase in the TGA balance, but we have revised this forecast due to changes in the market environment.

The 10-day analysis from Swissblock showed a similar perspective. The market structure of altcoins against the strength of Bitcoin is indicating buying pressure, and the possibility of a repetition of the upward pattern from last November is increasing, reinforcing the view that early signs of alt season are appearing.

Currently, Bitcoin has reached an all-time high of $118,800, supported by the influx of ETF funds in the U.S. and expectations regarding the Trump administration's fiscal expansion policies. The recently passed "big and beautiful bill" has paved the way for budget stimulus measures and monetary easing, improving the structural outlook for Bitcoin.

The market is focusing on the Consumer Price Index on July 15 and the FOMC meeting on July 30. Mr. Waller, a member of the FRB Board, hinted at the possibility of a rate cut this month due to slowing inflation, but the CME futures market predicts a 7% chance of a rate cut and a 93% chance of keeping rates unchanged.

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SBI Holdings Chairman and President

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Arthur Hayes

BitMEX, founder of Maelstroom

United States

Derivatives CryptoTrading

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Former Digital Minister of Taiwan

Taiwan

IT Infrastructure

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Animoca Brands CEO

Hong Kong

Blockchain Game NFT

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industry leader

Japan

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