In-depth Analysis of the Crypto Market: Geopolitical Situations Impact Bitcoin, Large Transactions in Ethereum Attract Attention

Market Observation

Recent risk events in the global financial market have been frequent, with ongoing tensions in geopolitical situations. Israel has launched airstrikes on multiple targets within Iran, leading to a sharp increase in international risk aversion, with gold and crude oil prices surging significantly. Meanwhile, a Boeing 787 passenger plane suffered an accident en route to the UK, resulting in over 240 casualties, and Boeing's stock price fell more than 6% in response. The domestic situation in the United States is also tumultuous, with ongoing riots in Los Angeles, resulting in a large number of arrests and some areas being forced to implement curfews.

In terms of monetary policy, despite calls for significant interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve has maintained its high interest rate stance unchanged since December 2024. According to the latest economic data released, the market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two potential rate cut opportunities throughout the year.

In this complex macro environment, industry analysts point out that in the first half of 2025, the global crypto asset market will experience a key shift from retail-driven to institution-led. Bitcoin reached an annual high of $110,000 in May, and the continuous influx of institutional funds is driving the transformation of crypto assets from speculative products to asset allocation tools. Crypto-related stocks have performed strongly, with many related assets recording significant gains.

Analysis suggests that the resonance logic between crypto assets and concept stocks is mainly driven by three major forces: First, major global economies are accelerating the improvement of regulatory frameworks, which enhances market transparency and the stability of capital inflows; Second, institutional funds continue to flow in, reshaping the market pricing mechanism; Third, technological innovation optimizes infrastructure, pushing the market valuation logic towards technological attributes. In addition, the compliance process for stablecoins is accelerating, and the implementation of relevant legislation further reshapes financial infrastructure.

However, influenced by the situation in the Middle East, the Bitcoin market experienced a significant correction this morning, falling below the $103,000 mark. Market analysis suggests that cryptocurrencies are moving in line with major risk assets, and Bitcoin is expected to find technical support around $101,000, but short-term price movements will largely be influenced by geopolitical situations.

In terms of Ethereum, although the price has fallen below $2500, down 9.2% in the last 24 hours, institutional investors are still actively positioning themselves. Notably, a large address purchased a significant amount of ETH again this morning, accumulating a total of 160,736 ETH (worth $421 million) over the past two weeks. Another institutional investor, who previously profited $30.45 million from two ETH swing trades, used 127 million USDC to buy 48,800 ETH within 6 hours after today's market drop.

The analysis team report indicates that if the ETH price falls below $2320, it may test the range of $2000 to $1800, but it is more likely to continue rising in the short term. If ETH breaks through $2793, it could trigger a new round of increases, with a target price potentially reaching $4000; even with a short-term pullback, it is expected to break through $3000 in July or August, with a year-end target maintained at $4000.

In terms of market dynamics, several new projects have experienced a pullback from their highs. Notably, a listed company has increased its holdings by 10,387 HYPE at an average price of $42.24. On the other hand, another listed company saw its stock price plummet 70% after submitting a registration statement allowing significant shareholders to resell a large number of shares. Although the chairman of the company's board clarified that this is just a standard procedure and not an actual sell-off, the market reaction was still severe.

Key Data (As of June 13, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $104,417 (Year-to-date +11.54%), Daily spot trading volume $47.667 billion
• Ethereum: $2,511.08 (Year-to-date -24.64%), Daily spot trading volume is $38.332 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 54 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 3.52 sat/vB ETH: 3.28 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 63.9%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.9019
• Sector performance: The crypto market has suffered a heavy blow, with AI down 11.6%; Meme down 11.9%.
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 246,510 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of 1.14 billion USD, including BTC liquidation of 444 million USD, ETH liquidation of 290 million USD, and SOL liquidation of 51.9423 million USD.

ETF Flows (as of June 12)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$86.3114 million (net inflow for 4 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +112 million (net inflow for 19 consecutive days)

Today's Outlook

• The 23rd TGE of a certain wallet will launch SGC.
• A trading platform will launch FARTCOIN, SQD, and CAKE
• An organization will enable 24/7 trading of XRP and SOL futures for US traders starting from June 13.
• Solsniper will close its NFT trading market before 3 PM on June 14.
• Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens on June 13 at 8 AM.
• Cookie DAO (COOKIE) will unlock approximately 13.88 million tokens on June 13th at 8 AM.
• Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens on June 15 at 8 AM.
• Onyxcoin (XCN) will unlock approximately 296 million tokens at 8 AM on June 15.

Top 500 largest price increases by market capitalization today: Venom (VENOM) up 28.04%, NEXPACE (NXPC) up 15.89%, Orbs (ORBS) up 13.00%, Aerodrome Finance (AERO) up 12.80%, WhiteRock (WHITE) up 11.57%.

Hot News

• Anthony Pompliano is set to lead the public company ProCapBTC in a proposed financing of $750 million to purchase Bitcoin.
• A Canadian listed company purchased approximately $440,000 worth of HYPE tokens.
• A certain trading platform redeemed 188,000 SOL from staking in the early hours and distributed them to 30 addresses.
• Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran, Defense Minister announces nationwide state of emergency
• In the past 24 hours, the crypto market saw a total liquidation of $1.017 billion in contracts, mainly from long positions.
• The U.S. Senate will hold a final vote on the stablecoin GENIUS bill on June 17.
• Report: 74% of family offices have allocated or are considering allocating digital assets
• The 40,000 ETH short position of the "Three Battles ETH 100% Win Rate Whale" is currently yielding a profit of 9.42 million USD.
• The US SEC has postponed the approval decision for the spot ETFs of Dogecoin, Hedera, and Avalanche.
• DeFi Development has secured a $5 billion equity credit line to increase its holdings in Solana.
• A certain asset management giant has incorporated crypto assets into its core strategic vision for 2030.
• DTCC considers issuing a stablecoin to promote digital asset settlement
• Trident plans to raise $500 million to establish a corporate XRP treasury and appoint strategic advisors.
• Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 7 were 248,000.
• A trading platform has launched the 22nd phase of the HODLer airdrop project DeFi App (HOME)
• The 23rd phase TGE of a certain wallet will launch SGC
• A certain tech giant will apply for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong and Singapore.
• Yicai: The virtual coin LABUBU is not officially issued by Pop Mart, and it warns to be cautious of the risks of speculating on coins.