Technical indicators point to an impending rally of Bitcoin and altcoins

In the second half of April 2025, the cryptocurrency market is recovering. Against this background, signals of divergence have emerged, hinting at a possible rally of Bitcoin and altcoins.

Divergence is an important concept in data analysis. It occurs when two indicators that previously moved in the same direction suddenly start behaving differently — for example, one rises while the other falls. In this article, we will discuss five key signals of this phenomenon that will help traders and investors better understand what is happening in the market.

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Hints of the upcoming Bitcoin rally

Historically, the price of Bitcoin tends to fall when the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises, and vice versa. From September 2024 to March 2025, they moved in the same direction — both increased.

According to Joe Consorti, the head of growth at TheyaBitcoin, in April Trump announced a new tariff policy, and the old correlation returned. The DXY sharply fell from 103.5 to 98.5, while BTC, on the contrary, soared from $75,000 to over $91,000.

Divergence may indicate that investors view Bitcoin as a safe haven amid global economic instability.

"Bitcoin ceases to follow the dollar from the moment the USA announced a new tariff regime. In the context of global economic changes, gold and BTC are becoming increasingly attractive," noted Consorti.

Tuur Demeester, an advisor at Blockstream, pointed out another divergence: Bitcoin has stopped following the NASDAQ index, which reflects the stocks of technology companies. Previously, Bitcoin often moved in the same direction as NASDAQ due to the connection with technology and the overall market sentiment. In April of this year, everything changed, and the expert considers this a positive signal. However, not everyone agrees with him. For example, the platform Ecoinometrics holds an opposing view.

"The 'divergence of Bitcoin' and its 'separation' from other markets will be the main topics of this year," said Demeester.

The NASDAQ index is currently falling due to concerns over high interest rates and slowing economic growth. At the same time, bitcoin continues to rise. This indicates that cryptocurrency is becoming less dependent on traditional markets.

CryptoQuant analysts noticed yet another divergence in the behavior of Bitcoin holders:

• Long-term holders (LTH), who have held bitcoin for more than 155 days, have started accumulating coins again after the recent price peak. This indicates their confidence in future growth.
• Short-term holders (STH), on the contrary, are selling their assets. This divergence between long-term and short-term investors often indicates the beginning of an accumulation phase, which may signal future price growth.

! Change in the net position of long-term bitcoin holders. Source: CryptoQuant. "Why is this divergence important? The behavior of LTH is usually associated with confidence in the long-term macroeconomic outlook rather than speculative actions. In contrast, STH activity is often emotional and reactive, driven by price volatility and fear. When accumulation on the LTH side coincides with the capitulation of STH, it tends to indicate the early stages of the re-accumulation phase," said IT Tech, an analyst at CryptoQuant.

Restoration of altcoins

Divergence signals have appeared for altcoins as well. Jamie Coutts, the chief crypto analyst at Realvision, pointed out the 365-day low indicator. This metric shows how many coins have reached their lowest price over the past year.

In April 2025, the market capitalization of altcoins hit a new low. However, the number of altcoins that reached new 365-day lows significantly decreased. This divergence between the drop in capitalization and the reduction in the number of new lows is an important signal.

"The divergence shows that the downward momentum has been exhausted," explained Jamie Kuttz.

When fewer altcoins reach their annual lows, it means that investors are stopping the mass panic selling of assets. The negative sentiment in the market is weakening, and the price increase of some tokens shows that buyers are returning. Perhaps the long-awaited altseason will finally begin in the market soon.

Analyst Merlijn The Trader noticed a bearish divergence on the Bitcoin dominance chart (BTC.D). This indicator shows what share the cryptocurrency occupies in the total market capitalization of the crypto market.

! Divergence between Bitcoin and RSI. Source: Merlijn The Trader "A bearish divergence has been detected on BTC.D. on the BTC chart. D prices reach higher peaks. But the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator shows lower peaks. This setup doesn't cheat. The power of altcoins is growing. Keep an eye on trade setups," the expert wrote.

In April 2025, the total capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL3) increased by 20% — from $660 billion to over $800 billion. The mentioned divergence signals indicate that this growth may continue.

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