Brother Trump finally couldn't hold back and took action. He deployed 7 of the most precious B-2 stealth bombers, carrying 14 so-called strongest bunker busters, heading straight for the deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility in Iran.
We've talked about this before, Israel's own bunker-busting bombs can only dig about 6 meters at most. But Iran's nuclear facilities? They're buried under a hundred meters of granite and reinforced concrete, and Israel's little gadgets can't reach them at all! Seeing that it's not going to work, they can only cling tightly to the U.S.: "Big brother, I'm begging you, help a brother out!"
"It just exploded here, and Trump immediately jumped out to announce victory: 'Done! Iran's nuclear facilities are all wiped out!' At the same time, he sends a message to Iran: Hurry up and come to the negotiating table! Don't listen? There are worse things waiting for you!"
So the question arises, is what Old Trump said reliable? Were Iran's nuclear facilities really "raised"?
If we really go by what Trump said, with such a thorough bombing, there should be some signs of nuclear leakage, right? But what happened? The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issues reports every day, and the radiation data from various monitoring points is stable and well within normal levels. Even along the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia has set up 43 monitoring stations, and the data shows: all good, no leakage! Isn't that awkward? This round of bombing by the U.S. seems to... not have had much effect.
Why didn’t it explode thoroughly? There are many theories: some say that the American bunker buster isn’t as powerful as it’s claimed to be, and while the theory of sustained bombing sounds impressive, it’s actually difficult to execute; others say that Iran was already prepared and had moved its assets long ago. Regardless of the reason, the conclusion is: Trump’s "heavy-handed strike" ended up being a lonely endeavor.
Since it didn't blow up, what is Trump after?
We have analyzed before that the U.S. has quite a headache dealing with Iran. Ground invasion? Absolutely impossible! Israel is desperately trying to drag the U.S. into the water, but Trump is quite shrewd. He knows very well: if they can't even handle the Houthis in Yemen, how can they tackle such a large place like Iran (the strategic depth is immense)? So, this guy simply goes for a "self-congratulatory victory"—regardless of whether the bombing actually hit or not, I'll announce that I've won first! This provides a way out for both himself and Israel. By the way, he can also hint at "tempting Iran to negotiate," with a clear purpose: to suppress oil prices, clear the mines for the midterm elections, and avoid any major blunders.
Let's talk about Israel.
In recent days, various analysts have said that Israel is truly overwhelmed by the bombings! The air defense system is on the verge of "running out of ammo," and if this continues, the economy is bound to collapse! To put it simply, those few small cities in Israel (about the same size as our tech parks) are extremely densely populated. Millions of citizens hiding in bomb shelters every day? Try it for 15 consecutive days? It would definitely be chaotic! A month of bombings? Everyone would have to flee!
Netanyahu was almost driven mad, throwing a fit and rolling on the ground, trying to force the U.S. to step in personally. But how cunning is Trump? He absolutely refuses to jump into the pit! In the end, he symbolically tossed a few bunker busters: "Brother, I've given you face! I've done my job, whether it exploded or not is up to heaven's favor, but don't blame me!"
Let me share my personal understanding: airstrikes are fundamentally different from actually sending troops on the ground. Bombers can just drop their bombs and leave, that's called "non-contact." If ground forces really enter, it's like stepping into the quagmire of the Middle East; getting out of it would be difficult! Trump is clearly calculating this very carefully.
So now Trump's strategy is to find a way out for both sides (himself and Netan), forcibly declaring "victory." On Netan's side, it's also easy to explain: you see, although we suffered a lot this time and incurred huge losses, if it weren't for my planning of this operation, Iran would be on the verge of having nuclear bombs! I am the great hero who saved the country! Immediately, Israeli Foreign Minister Sharl took over to support this: "This bombing at least delayed Iran's ability to develop nuclear bombs by two to three years!" The implication is: Israel is safe! Alright, America wins, Israel wins, anyway, just by opening their mouths, the results of victory all depend on... the method of spiritual victory?
So the core point comes: what about Iran?
Trump offers a carrot (willing to negotiate the Iran nuclear deal) with one hand while wielding a big stick (if they don't come to the table, he will continue to hit). How should Iran respond?
Surely someone will say: "You talk about Iran being cowardly every day, so why don't you give a suggestion!"
My view is: as long as Iran does not have internal chaos (infighting) or back down (surrender), it is actually in an invincible position!
Going head-to-head with Israel? With Iran's vast territory and war potential, they can drag Israel down just by prolonging the conflict. Israel's small size can't withstand sustained large-scale bombings.
Will the US directly strike next? Trump is too scared to commit ground troops. Relying solely on air strikes? Bombing Iran a couple of times might be fine, but wanting to completely take them down? Not enough! Iran is not a small country that can be crippled by just one bombing.
So I think Iran has three cards to play: "upper, middle, and lower."
Best strategy (trump card - lethal technique): Pinch the death point - go all out against Israel! Regardless of whether the US, UK, or Europe intervenes, Iran is targeting one point - mobilize all firepower (missiles, drones) and go all in to bomb Israel!
Conditions: "Stop the bombing? Sure! Lift all sanctions against me immediately! Otherwise, I’ll send 'warmth' to Israel at least 4 times a day, with 5 to 20 missiles each time. I want to see how long Israel's Iron Dome can hold up! America, feel free to bomb me; if you dare, send ground troops to flatten me! As long as you don't dare to go to the ground, I guarantee that before you bomb me down, I'll make Israel feel pain and be crippled first!" This is what it means to take the initiative in negotiations!
The goal must be ruthless: even if the United States eventually backs down and agrees to lift the sanctions, Iran must insist on bombing for at least 60 days! The purpose is to make the Israeli people feel pain to the core, to let major cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa taste the experience of Gaza! They must understand that war results in death and financial loss! We need to instill a real fear of war in them! The ultimate goal? To blow the war man Netanyahu off the stage! If this move is successful, Iran will have won!
Zhong Ce (Total War - Prolonged War): Full bloom, the United States and Israel fight together! It’s all out, whoever provokes me will be hit, turning the Middle East into a prolonged battlefield.
Effect: This move may not necessarily be the "optimal solution" for Iran itself (too much consumption), but for those anti-American camps, especially Russia, it's like celebrating the New Year! The pressure on the Russian military in Ukraine can suddenly decrease! Russia will definitely be overjoyed: Keep it up, Iranian brothers! Hold the line on your side, and we'll send you more equipment and ammunition!
Possible actions: I see that Iran shows signs of taking this path, for example:
Direct military retaliation: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has stated that it will focus on targeting U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria. It is said that 35 U.S. military outposts in the Middle East could be "saturated greetings." The Iran-friendly militia brothers in Iraq are also eager to try, with intelligence and firepower support all prepared.
Threaten to lock the Strait: harsh words about launching the "Oil Disruption Plan"! The Strait of Hormuz is the throat of global maritime oil transport (accounting for 30% of the flow). If Iran really deploys a large number of anti-ship missiles and underwater drones there, will they seal off the strait? International oil prices could instantly soar to 200 dollars a barrel! The Saudi princes and the American allies in Europe and Japan, who are waiting for imported oil, will all be dumbfounded. Energy security is in danger! (Of course, this move is extremely risky and will offend all neighboring Arab countries and global oil buyers. Unless pushed to the limit, Iran generally does not resort to this. However, Russia will definitely be secretly happy: brother, if the oil price goes up, I'll buy more weapons with the extra money!)
Little brother is all in: Activate the entire "Arc of Resistance" brotherhood! Houthi from Yemen, hit the ships in the Red Sea with all your might! Hezbollah from Lebanon, launch more rockets towards northern Israel! Restrain the US-Israel alliance from all directions, making them unable to prioritize.
Domestic hardline: While being bombed, repairing the Fordo nuclear facility! Restore 80% of centrifuge operations within 48 hours! Uranium enrichment? Directly accelerate to 90% (weapons grade)! You dare to bomb me? I will counter you with "nuclear breakthrough"! At the same time, stabilize domestically, clean up the pests (internal traitors), and unify thoughts. This is Iran's greatest weakness and the only place it might lose. Once that's sorted out, with the rear secure, the front line can act freely.
In the long run: Although the short-term pressure on this strategy is huge, as long as Iran can really withstand the first three months (Russian blood transfusions are in place), the further it drags on, the stronger the confidence of Iran and the "Arc of Resistance" will be, and a new generation of teams can be trained, and the advantages over Israel will become greater and greater. After a year, you will be able to take the initiative! The most important thing is to be able to link up with Russia on the east and west fronts of the Eurasian continent, so that the United States will be exhausted and take care of one at the expense of the other! In the end, the United States may not be able to bear it, and there will be complaints in Israel, and the Netta government will naturally collapse. Why is it just a "middle policy"? First, to what extent can there really be complete trust and military binding between Iran and Russia without reservation? It's a question mark. Second, the "Arc of Resistance" was weakened by blows before, and now it is not so easy to rebuild the team and integrate forces.
The worst option (giving in - dead end): endure for a few days and admit defeat, returning to the negotiating table. This is the worst outcome. How will Trump and Israel play this? We discussed it earlier: the so-called Iran nuclear deal is just a piece of toilet paper for Trump! During his first term, he can tear it up whenever he wants, no reason needed! Signing it is meaningless. For Israel, a "ceasefire" is just a ruse to lower your guard! In dealing with Hamas, they signed three ceasefire agreements and tore them up three times! They don't need a reason to turn against you!
If Iran dares to take this low strategy, it wouldn't be surprising if they end up being completely exploited!
So how the game is played now depends entirely on Iran's determination! I estimate three possible outcomes: roughly each accounting for thirty percent.
Why do I feel that Iran is not very willing to easily choose a lower strategy?
Netanyahu's attitude is absolutely extreme! This guy is clearly in for a fight to the death, intent on completely overthrowing the Iranian regime, leaving no room for compromise. His plan is to take advantage of the fact that the U.S. still has some strength (though it's declining) to drag the U.S. down completely and finish off Iran! His frenzied attacks on Iran are a gamble that Trump will "be loyal."
Trump's credibility has completely collapsed! This guy turns on a dime, lying comes as easily as breathing, and the whole world sees through it! Not a single word that comes out of his mouth, not even punctuation, can be trusted! A pure old con artist in negotiations.
These two forces twist together into a rope, applying pressure and deterrence on Iran every day:
"Do you still want to surrender and beg for mercy? Dream on! I will kill you! You have no other way to live except to pick up a weapon and fight me to the end!"
To put it mildly, this is simply kicking Iran on the way to "flipping the table"! I'm afraid Iran is also scolding her mother in her heart now: Fuck your uncle! Horizontal and vertical are all dead, then Lao Tzu will kill you first! Let's see who can't bear it first!