Solana (SOL) weakens amid rising interest from retail traders: What's next?

Solana (SOL) is trading around the 130 USD mark on Thursday evening, after continuing to be rejected at the upper resistance level of the descending wedge pattern. Market sentiment is weakening, especially after the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to cut interest rates with a ‘hawkish’ tone, which has increased downward pressure on SOL. Concurrently, on-chain data shows selling pressure is dominant, signaling a risk of deeper short-term declines.

Fed cautiously cuts interest rates, exerting pressure on risk assets

The cryptocurrency market collectively weakened following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting early Thursday. As expected, the Fed adjusted interest rates downward by 25 basis points, bringing the range down to 3.50%–3.75% after two days of policy meetings, and signaled a possible pause in easing in January.

Additionally, policymakers’ forecasts of only one 0.25% rate cut in 2026 — similar to the outlook announced in September — have cooled market expectations, creating short-term pressure on risk assets. The rate cut with a ‘hawkish’ tone and the cautious stance from the Fed triggered risk-averse sentiment, causing assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Solana to decline during Thursday’s trading session.

On-chain data indicates bearish signals

Data from CryptoQuant, shown in the chart below, indicates increasing selling pressure on Solana. The Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator for SOL turned negative on Wednesday. This metric measures the difference between buy and sell order volumes over the past three months. When the 90-day CVD remains positive and rises, the market enters a “Taker Buy Dominant” phase. Conversely, when the indicator turns negative and continues to decline, it reflects a “Taker Sell Dominant” state.

SOL CVD Chart | Source: CryptoQuantIn addition, CryptoQuant’s Futures Average Order Size indicator — tracking the average size of SOL futures trading orders — is seeing an increase in small orders. This suggests retail investor participation is rising, a signal that typically does not favor positive price movements for SOL.

Solana Futures Average Order Size Chart | Source: CryptoQuant## Solana Price Forecast: SOL rejected at a key level

The Solana price continues to face pressure after being rejected at the upper trendline of the descending wedge pattern on Wednesday. By Thursday, SOL had fallen 3.87% and traded around 130.99 USD.

If selling pressure persists, SOL could extend its correction toward the November 21 low at 121.66 USD.

Daily SOL/USDT Chart | Source: TradingViewOn the daily timeframe, the RSI indicator is at 40 — below the neutral threshold of 50 and still trending downward — indicating that bearish momentum remains dominant.

However, in a recovery scenario, SOL could regain upward momentum and test the 50-day EMA at 151.60 USD.

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