Bitcoin Price Prediction: Spot holders become the "long wick candle", and the panic index falling to a six-month low indicates a buy the dip opportunity.

The price of Bitcoin sharply fell from $122,000 to a low of $102,000 last Friday and is currently rebounding steadily. Notably, this recovery is not driven by high-leverage traders, but is supported by the remarkable resilience shown by spot holders amidst the fluctuations. Although the market is in a recovery phase, the Bitcoin fear and greed index has dropped to its lowest point in six months (24), entering the "extreme fear" zone, which historically often signals a unique opportunity to Buy the Dips.

Spot Holders: The "Stabilizing Force" of the Market

When futures traders face large-scale liquidations, Bitcoin spot investors choose to stay put, becoming a key force in preventing further price falls.

· Limited Sell-off: Exchange net position data shows that during the past three days of Bitcoin's sharp decline, only about 6,000 coins BTC (worth approximately $688 million) flowed into the exchange. This limited inflow indicates that holder sell-off activity is minimal, maintaining strong conviction even amid increased market fluctuations.

· Role of Stabilizers: The firm stance of spot investors, rather than selling at a loss, plays a stabilizing role in the market and effectively prevents prices from experiencing a more severe fall.

Sentiment Indicator: Opportunities in Extreme Fear

In the early stages of market recovery, sentiment indicators showed extreme pessimism, but history indicates that this could be a turning point.

· Panic Bottom: The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 24, reaching a new low in nearly six months, firmly situated in the "Extreme Fear" zone. The last time it dropped to such a low level was during the market crash in April 2025.

· Historical Experience: There is an old saying in the financial world - "Buy when the streets run red with blood". Historical data shows that after the index fell into "extreme fear" in April 2025, the market subsequently experienced a rebound, with Bitcoin prices reaching a new all-time high in May 2025.

· Current sentiment: The index's sluggishness reflects the panic in the market following last Friday's large-scale liquidation event (1.6 million traders liquidated over $19 billion), but it also provides a unique entry opportunity for brave investors who are willing to Buy the Dips.

Price Trend: Retesting $115,000 Resistance

Bitcoin is currently trying to recover key technical levels, but caution is still required.

· Key Resistance: Bitcoin is currently trading around $114,553, just slightly below the key resistance level of $115,000. Although it briefly broke above this level during the day, it failed to maintain momentum, indicating persistent selling pressure near this threshold.

· Short-term Outlook: Supported by the strong sentiment of spot holders, Bitcoin's short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish.

Upside target: Successfully reclaiming $115,000 is expected to pave the way towards $117,261 and ultimately challenge $120,000.

Complete recovery: To achieve complete recovery, it is necessary to continuously push the price back to $122,000.

· Downside risk: If the bearish pressure from traders exceeds the commitment of holders, Bitcoin may fall below $112,500. This would lead to a price test of the support level at $110,000, thereby invalidating the current bullish outlook.

Conclusion

The recent steady rebound of Bitcoin is driven by the resilience of spot holders rather than the leverage push from speculators, providing a positive signal for the intrinsic health and maturity of the market. Meanwhile, the "extreme fear" sentiment indicator is flashing, suggesting that the current market may be at a significant bottom. Although net short positions on Hyperliquid still show that institutional traders generally hold a cautious attitude, historical experience tells us that the resilience exhibited during a "bleeding" market is often a precursor to the next wave of upward momentum. The key for investors right now is to observe whether Bitcoin can break through the critical resistance of $115,000 and to assess whether the confidence of spot holders can ultimately outweigh the pessimism in the derivatives market.

Note: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions carefully.