Hayes stated that Trump's monetary policy will drive Bitcoin to soar to 3.4 million dollars.

Legendary trader and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes has made an astonishing prediction that the price of Bitcoin could reach $3.4 million by 2028. This bold prediction is based on an analysis of the radical monetary expansion policies that the Trump administration may implement, sparking heated discussions in the market. If Hayes' prediction comes true, it would mean Bitcoin would rise over 30 times from its current price.

US Debt Crisis: Catalyst for Bitcoin Bull Market

In a [deep report]( released on September 23, Hayes detailed the severe fiscal challenges that the United States is about to face. According to his research, the U.S. government is under dual pressure:

· By 2028, the annual fiscal deficit is expected to rise to approximately 2 trillion dollars.

· A large amount of existing national debt is about to mature and needs refinancing.

The combination of these two factors may lead to the issuance of new national debt exceeding 15 trillion dollars in the coming years.

"From now until 2028, the Treasury must issue new debt to repay old debt and cover the government's deficit," Hayes noted in the report, "this will create an unprecedented liquidity environment."

) Federal Reserve: The Last Buyer

Hayes's core prediction is that the Federal Reserve will be forced to become the main buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds. He presented several key arguments:

· The willingness of overseas investors to purchase U.S. debt is declining.

· The Trump administration may implement yield curve control policies.

· The Federal Reserve may be forced to purchase 50% or more of newly issued debt.

"I believe the Federal Reserve will purchase 50% or more of the issued debt, as fewer foreign central banks will buy government bonds today, knowing that Trump will issue a large amount of government bonds," Hayes explained.

This situation is similar to that during the COVID-19 pandemic, when U.S. authorities absorbed about 40% of government borrowing to stabilize the market. However, Hayes predicts that the scale of monetary expansion in the coming years will far exceed that of the pandemic period.

Liquidity and Bitcoin Price: Mathematical Model Analysis

Hayes established a mathematical model that directly associates the growth of the money supply with the price of Bitcoin. According to his analysis:

· For every increase of 1 dollar in credit rise, the slope of Bitcoin price appreciation is 0.19

· If the Federal Reserve creates trillions of dollars in new liquidity, this will directly drive the price of Bitcoin up.

· In his model, the issuance of $15 trillion in new debt will ultimately drive Bitcoin to $3.4 million.

"This means that for every trillion dollars of new debt issued, the value of Bitcoin gets closer to the range of millions of dollars," Hayes pointed out in the report.

Direction is more important than accuracy

Despite providing specific numbers, Hayes also acknowledged that his predictions may not be fully realized. He emphasized that investment strategies should focus on the overall direction rather than precise figures:

"My goal is to determine the right direction to move forward and to be sure I'm betting on the fastest horse, assuming Trump really intends to print trillions of dollars to achieve his policy objectives."

This cautious attitude indicates that even if Bitcoin fails to reach the specific target of 3.4 million dollars, Hayes still believes that Bitcoin will experience significant appreciation in the context of large-scale monetary expansion.

Bitcoin as a monetary policy hedge tool

Hayes' analysis highlights the potential of Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary policy risks. In his model, Bitcoin is not only a speculative asset but also a protection measure against the following situations:

· Rapid rise of government debt

· Significant expansion of money supply

· Decline in purchasing power of fiat currency

"In this environment, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become its biggest advantage," Hayes pointed out, "the hard cap of 21 million means it cannot be diluted, which stands in stark contrast to fiat currency."

Current Market Conditions and Short-term Outlook

As of the time of writing, the Bitcoin trading price is close to $112,927, down about 9% from the historical high of $124,167 set in August. Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin remains in the six-figure price range, indicating that the market fundamentals are still strong.

In the short term, investors are closely watching the direction of U.S. policy, especially:

· Future interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve

· Changes in fiscal policy

· Continued participation of institutional investors

Hayes' predictions, while focusing on long-term trends, also provide a framework for short-term investors to consider the close relationship between Bitcoin prices and monetary policy.

Conclusion: Bitcoin's Long-Term Value Proposition

Whether Hayes's specific numerical predictions come to fruition or not, his analysis underscores the core value proposition of Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary policy risk. In an environment of persistent government debt rise and the potential for central banks to be forced to expand their balance sheets, Bitcoin's fixed supply characteristic may become even more valuable.

For long-term investors, Hayes' analysis provides an important perspective: Bitcoin is not only a speculative asset but also a strategic allocation to cope with macroeconomic uncertainties.