Hayes family office issues warning: $500 million unlocking each month, is the bubble of Hyperliquid about to burst?

Original Title: HYPE’s Damocles Sword

Original author: Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes Family Office Fund

Reprint: Luke, Mars Finance

Hyperliquid is currently experiencing an epic highlight moment—its ecosystem is thriving, trading volume has reached an all-time high, and the bidding war for USDH is one of the most attention-grabbing "beauty contests" in cryptocurrency history. But beneath the crown, there hangs a sword of Damocles: HYPE is about to face its first true test.

Starting from November 29, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will begin linear release over a period of 24 months. Based on a value of 50 USD per token, this means the total value of the tokens unlocked by the team could reach up to 11.9 billion USD — nominally, nearly 500 million USD worth of tokens will enter the market each month.

The problem is that with the current level of buybacks, only about 17% of the selling pressure can be absorbed. This leaves a surplus supply of $410 million each month. Has the market already digested the impact brought by such a large scale of unlocking?

Research from @lukas_rppt

Put yourself in the shoes of a Hyperliquid developer and think about it. You have worked hard for years, and a life-changing token is about to start unlocking, and you can get it with just a click. What would you do?

Can DATs save the crisis?

With the launch of Sonnet, one of the largest cryptocurrency DATs (Decentralized Acquisition Trusts) in history is expected to complete its fundraising in the fourth quarter of 2025. It has raised approximately $583 million in HYPE tokens and $305 million in cash. However, even with Sonnet and all other smaller HYPE DATs, it is merely a drop in the bucket compared to the upcoming HYPE unlock amount.

When sharks smell blood

You have touched the cake of the old forces in the crypto world, so don't expect to walk away unscathed. Business is war, and historically, most crypto products have a short half-life - the winners always attract a swarm of "vampire attacks." Competition is intensifying, not only from first-tier exchanges but also from new challengers like Lighter.xyz (a company invested in by Maelstrom). CZ pushing Aster two months before the unlock? That may not be a coincidence.

The moment of truth has arrived!